20230419-东方金诚-2023年3月财政数据点评_3月财政收入端回稳向上_支出端保持较高强度_3页_295kb

Report Summary of Fiscal Data for March 2023

The report analyzes 2023 Q1 fiscal data, highlighting key trends in revenue and expenditure.

General Budget Revenue Performance

• March revenue growth improved significantly, with a 55% increase compared to -12% in the first two months, reflecting economic recovery and base effects. Tax revenue accelerated due to factors like deferred tax payments, low prior year numbers, and economic repair.
• Individual taxes showed mixed results: personal income tax fell 71% year-over-year in March, while corporate taxes benefited from deferred payments despite base issues. Non-tax revenue slowed from 279% in Q4 to 50%, likely due to reduced government asset mobilization.

General Budget Expenditure Trends

• Q1 expenditure rose 68% year-over-year, supporting fiscal advance. Focus remained on health, debt interest, and social welfare, with infrastructure spending heating up in recent months.
• March expenditure growth slowed to 65%, primarily due to declining health and debt-related outlays.

Government Funds Status

• Both funds revenue and expenditure were low, with Q1 revenue down 218% and expenditure down 150%, largely due to weak land market performance and reduced special bond issuance.

Outlook and Projections

• Revenue is expected to rise in Q2, driven by ongoing economic repair and base effects, but land market stagnation will limit broader fiscal gains. Fiscal policy aims to support economic recovery, with cautious expectations for government funds revenue in 2023.