20231014-国盛证券-9月出口再超预期的信号_趋势的确认_4页_476kb

报告摘要

September Export and Import Summary

Export Data: September 2023 exports fell 6.2% year-on-year (vs. expected -7.6% and previous -8.8%), marking the second consecutive month of improvement. Exports rose 50% month-on-month, the highest since 2010, indicating strong resilience. Key drivers include external demand and declining 2022 year comparisons.
Import Data: September 2023 imports declined 6.2% year-on-year (vs. expected -5.7% and previous -7.3%). Imports rose 23% month-on-month, slightly below seasonal norms, suggesting economic stabilization but need for stronger domestic drivers.
Key Conclusions:
- Exports stronger than expected due to external demand and low base effects. July 2023 likely was the low point, with export declines narrowing and potential turnaround to positive growth by year-end.
- Increased imports in sectors like pharmaceuticals and fruits, while machinery imports dragged growth.
Structural Analysis:
- By Country: Strong exports to East Asia (e.g., South Korea) and Russia; Western markets showed improvement but primarily due to base effects.
- By Product: Electrical products and autos were bright spots; consumer electronics drag lessened amid product launches.
- By Trade Type: General trade led with narrower declines, while processing trade was weaker.
Outlook: Confirmation of economic recovery based on data trends, with risks from external factors and policy delays. Expect policy measures like real estate easing to support growth.
General Economic View: Economic环比 improved, with GDP possibly exceeding forecasts, but underlying momentum lacks strength; policy interventions anticipated later in the year.