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报告摘要

Market and Industry Summary - February 20, 2017

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive market and industry update from Samsung Securities, covering global and Korean market indicators, fund flows, economic forecasts, trading data, and specific company analyses. The report highlights key trends in the auto, real estate, and insurance sectors, along with insights on individual companies and upcoming events.

Market Indicators

Global Indices

Dow Jones: 20,624 (flat in 1 day, up 1.7% in 1 week)
Nasdaq: 5,839 (up 0.4% in 1 day, up 1.8% in 1 week)
S&P 500: 2,351 (up 0.2% in 1 day, up 1.5% in 1 week)
Nikkei 225: 19,251 (up 0.1% in 1 day, down 1.1% in 1 week)
Hang Seng: 24,162 (up 0.5% in 1 day, up 1.9% in 1 week)
Hong Kong H: 10,460 (up 1.0% in 1 day, up 2.0% in 1 week)
FTSE 100: 7,300 (up 0.3% in 1 day, up 0.6% in 1 week)
DAX: 11,757 (flat in 1 day, up 0.8% in 1 week)
CAC 40: 4,868 (down 0.7% in 1 day, up 0.8% in 1 week)

KRX Indices

Kospi: 2,084 (up 0.2% in 1 day, up 0.3% in 1 week)
Kospi 200: 270 (up 0.3% in 1 day, up 0.3% in 1 week)
Kosdaq: 620 (up 0.2% in 1 day, up 1.3% in 1 week)
Chemicals: 5,120 (down 0.5% in 1 day, down 0.1% in 1 week)
Iron & Metal Products: 4,925 (down 0.3% in 1 day, up 1.2% in 1 week)
Distribution: 448 (down 0.5% in 1 day, down 1.0% in 1 week)
Food & Beverage: 4,330 (down 0.2% in 1 day, down 0.8% in 1 week)
Transport Equipment: 1,757 (up 0.1% in 1 day, down 4.1% in 1 week)
Transport & Storage: 1,487 (down 0.6% in 1 day, up 2.7% in 1 week)
Electronics: 13,909 (up 1.5% in 1 day, up 1.5% in 1 week)
Banks: 264 (down 1.2% in 1 day, down 4.2% in 1 week)
Securities: 1,721 (down 2.4% in 1 day, down 3.2% in 1 week)
Communication: 336 (up 0.3% in 1 day, down 1.0% in 1 week)
Electricity & Gas: 1,293 (up 4.7% in 1 day, up 2.3% in 1 week)

Interest Rates

3-month CD: 1.49%
3-year corporate bond: 2.14%
Call: 1.23%
KRW/USD: 1,145 (up 5.6% from previous week)
Yen/USD: 113 (flat in 1 day, down 1% from previous week)
Korea CDS Spread: 0 bps (down 47 bps in 1 day, down 46 bps in 1 week)

Fund Flow

Kospi:
- Foreign: +54 (down from +289)
- Domestic: -210 (down from +149)
- Retail: +103 (down from -484)
Kosdaq:
- Foreign: -1 (up from -16)
- Domestic: -7 (down from +9)
- Retail: +13 (down from -17)

Economic Forecast

GDP Growth (y-y): 2.6% (2015), 2.7% (2016E), 2.6% (2017E)
Unemployment Rate (%): 3.6% (2015), 3.8% (2016E), 3.9% (2017E)
CPI Growth (y-y): 0.7% (2015), 1% (2016E), 2% (2017E)
KRW/USD (year-end): 1,172 (2015), 1,170 (2016E), 1,250 (2017E)
3-year KTB Yield (%): 1.7% (2015), 1.3% (2016E), 1.5% (2017E)

Trading Data

KOSPI Trading Value: 3.3 trillion KRW (up 0.1%)
KOSDAQ Trading Value: 2.9 trillion KRW (up 0.1%)
KOSPI Market Cap: 1,348.2 trillion KRW (up 0.1%)
KOSDAQ Market Cap: 200.0 billion KRW (up 0.1%)
KOSPI Customer Deposits: 210.0 billion KRW
KOSDAQ Customer Deposits: n/a
KOSPI Long Arbitrage Balance: 0.0 billion KRW
KOSDAQ Long Arbitrage Balance: n/a
KOSPI Trading Volume: 297.2 million shares
KOSDAQ Trading Volume: 918.0 million shares

Industry / Company Analysis

Autos (OVERWEIGHT)

Hyundai Motor (HMC):
- Earnings bottomed in 2016.
- Expected to reflect raw-material price hikes in 2H17.
- Investors remain skeptical about operational momentum and corporate governance.
- Target price: KRW190,000 (26.2% upside)
Kia Motors (000270 KS):
- Target price: KRW46,000 (21.2% upside)
Hyundai Mobis (012330 KS):
- Shares tied to HMC's sales recovery.
- Target price: KRW350,000 (34.9% upside)
Hankook Tire (161390 KS):
- Faces doubts on cost-passing ability.
- Product mix improvement expected due to rising SUV demand.
- Target price: KRW80,000 (33.1% upside)
Mando (204320 KS):
- Needs additional news for shares to rise above KRW300,000.
- Target price: KRW350,000 (27.3% upside)

Real Estate Weekly

Transactions in January:
- Down 33.9% m-m and 6.1% y-y.
- Weakness attributed to seasonality, fewer business days, and regulatory measures.
Collective Loan Market:
- Regulated by government measures, leading to delays in payments.
- Presales winners have relinquished contracts due to new mortgage guidelines.
Market Outlook:
- Uncertainties expected to persist due to regulatory and political factors.

Company Updates

Samsung Life Insurance (032830)

4Q16 Performance:
- Net profit: KRW74.4b (missed consensus by KRW63.8b)
- Underwriting indicators improved.
Positives:
- Embedded value (EV) and value of new business (VNB) rose 16% and 2.7% respectively.
- Protection-type VNB margin increased to 91.2%.
Negatives:
- RBC ratio fell 33% pts to 304%.
- Net investment yield at 3.3%.
Target Price: KRW130,000 (22.6% upside)
Recommendation: BUY

Korea Zinc (010130)

Guidance:
- 2017 sales guidance seen as conservative due to Hindustan Zinc's increased capacity.
- Shares at 1.4x P/B.
4Q16 Performance:
- Sales up 20%, operating profit down 30%.
Market Outlook:
- Restructuring needed in zinc smelting market.
- Target price: KRW530,000 (24.3% upside)
- Recommendation: BUY

Seegene (096530)

4Q16 Performance:
- Sales up 18.7% y-y to KRW20.2b.
- Operating profit missed by 25.8%.
Sales Growth:
- Driven by Allpex assay kits and domestic demand for diagnostic kits.
- Exports to Americas fell 36.8% y-y.
Target Price: KRW45,000 (32.4% upside)
- Recommendation: BUY

Soulbrain (036830)

4Q16 Performance:
- Sales up 7% y-y to KRW187.1b.
- Operating profit down 29% y-y to KRW21.2b.
Market Outlook:
- Momentum likely to remain soft into 2H.
- Expected to improve with mass production of 3D NAND.
Target Price: KRW68,000 (30.8% upside)
- Recommendation: BUY

Jeju Air (BUY)

Stability:
- Expected to benefit from industry stability.
Analyst: Youngho Kim

Emerson Pacific (BUY)

Platform Expansion:
- Expected to lead growth through expansion.
Analyst: Sokmo Yun

Key Events and Upcoming Conferences

Samsung Asia Theme Conference:
- Scheduled for Feb 22-24 in Singapore/Hong Kong.
NDRs (Notable Data Releases):
- Samsung F&M (CFO) - UK: Feb 20-24.
- Analyst: Sean Chang

Summary of Key Points

Global and Korean indices show mixed performance, with some indices up and others down.
Fund flows indicate a slight net inflow in Kospi but outflows in Kosdaq.
Economic forecasts suggest moderate GDP growth and rising inflation.
Auto sector is seen as OVERWEIGHT, with focus on Hyundai Motor and Hankook Tire.
Real estate transactions declined due to regulatory and seasonal factors.
Samsung Life Insurance reported a 4Q miss but improved underwriting and cost efficiency.
Korea Zinc and Seegene are both rated BUY, with expectations for market restructuring and product growth.
Soulbrain is rated BUY but faces short-term profit disappointment.
Upcoming events include the Samsung Asia Theme Conference and NDRs.

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