期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Fall1983_44页_974kb

NBER Reporter Summary - Fall 1983

Core Content

The NBER Reporter for Fall 1983 focuses on the Bureau's Project on Pensions and the Labor Market, highlighting various studies and analyses related to pension plans, labor market dynamics, and related economic issues.

Main Topics and Key Findings

1. Pension Plans and Labor Market Dynamics

• David A. Wise discusses the Bureau's ongoing research on pension plans, emphasizing the following:

  • Structural characteristics of pension plans.
  • Determinants of individual pension coverage.
  • Types of plans selected by firms.
  • Incentive effects of pension plans on retirement behavior.
  • Reasons for the existence of pension plans and their specific features.

• David T. Ellwood provides an overview, noting:

  • Pensions are more common in unionized and large firms.
  • Large pensions are associated with large salaries, not income equalization.
  • Defined-benefit plans reward work before retirement and penalize work after, especially during inflation.
  • There are discontinuities in pension wealth at the age of vesting and early retirement.

• Kotlikoff and Wise argue that pension wealth accruals have substantial discontinuities, inconsistent with a spot market model. They also find that job changes lead to a significant loss in pension wealth.

• Lazear highlights the incentive effects of pension plans, suggesting that defined-benefit plans may lead to inefficient resource allocation due to their structure. He proposes that complete and immediate vesting is necessary for efficiency.

• Nalebuff and Zeckhauser develop a framework to assess how defined-benefit pensions influence retirement decisions, emphasizing employee heterogeneity.

• Viscusi argues that nontransferable pensions can reduce worker mobility and self-select more stable employees.

• Freeman concludes that unions increase pension coverage and benefit senior workers, but also that union plans tend to avoid nonunion firms' stocks.

2. Social Security and Retirement Behavior

• Hausman and Wise use a continuous-time hazard model and Brownian motion model to analyze how Social Security benefits influence retirement behavior.

  • They find that Social Security benefits account for a substantial portion of the decline in retirement age.
  • The estimated effect is lower than previously thought but qualitatively consistent with earlier studies.

• Hurd and Boskin argue that the major reduction in retirement age in the early 1970s was due to increased Social Security benefits.

• Kutner finds that private pension benefits are also associated with earlier retirement among California public school teachers.

• Hurd and Shoven analyze the distributional aspect of Social Security, finding that:

  • Benefits are 3–4 times contributions.
  • The wealthy receive the largest transfers and have higher returns on Social Security contributions.

3. Minority Youth Unemployment

• Richard B. Freeman presents findings from an NBER project on minority youth unemployment:
  • The employment-to-population ratio for black youths fell sharply in the 1970s, while it remained stable for white youths.
  • Government data (e.g., CPS) is inadequate for understanding youth unemployment due to limited information on non-work activities.
  • NBER conducted a survey of inner-city minority youths, revealing:
    • Many youths are unemployed for long periods and struggle to re-enter the labor market.
    • A significant portion of their income comes from illegal activities.
    • Absence rates are high among black youths, contributing to job performance issues.
    • Churchgoing and positive attitudes are correlated with better employment outcomes.
    • Reservation wages are relatively high among black youths, contributing to joblessness.
    • Crime perception plays a major role in employment and criminal behavior.
    • Youth employment does not significantly improve with age, indicating long-term challenges.
    • The supply of black youths is responsive to work incentives.

4. Debt Markets and Private Capital Formation

• Benjamin M. Friedman discusses the impact of government deficits on private capital formation.
  • Current estimates are based on flow-of-funds analysis.
  • An alternative approach involves stock-flow analysis, which considers asset and liability stocks.
  • Interest payments on public debt are a significant portion of GNP, raising concerns about measurement accuracy.
  • Adjustments for inflation and debt repayment are necessary for accurate analysis.

Other Sections

• Research Summaries include:

  • Minority Youth Unemployment
  • Debt Markets: Government Deficits and Private Capital Formation
  • The Taxation of Income from Capital

• Economic Outlook Survey provides insights into the current economic situation and future projections.

• NBER Profiles and Conferences highlight key personnel and upcoming events.

• Conference Calendar lists NBER-related events.

• Bureau News and Bureau Books update readers on NBER activities and publications.

• Current Working Papers summarize ongoing research.

Conclusion

The NBER project on pensions and the labor market is ongoing and explores various dimensions, including plan structure, coverage, incentive effects, and distributional impacts. The minority youth unemployment study underscores the complexity of labor market dynamics and the role of social and economic factors in shaping employment and behavior. The analysis of government deficits suggests the need for alternative methods to better understand capital market interactions.