20240102-天风证券-宏观_2024年年初经济怎么看_6页_451kb

The macro analysis report from Tengfeng Securities examines the 2024 year-start economic outlook, noting a shift in policy from broad credit easing to smoothing loan fluctuations, which is expected to result in lower initial credit growth due to the high 2023 base. Key sectors include potential stabilization of consumption and minor improvement in exports, but investment faces pressure from high real estate and infrastructure growth, leading to anticipated data declines. With the economy in a previous low-point phase, the report suggests possible policy adjustments at March "Two Sessions" or April Politburo meetings to stimulate recovery if initial data underperforms, while highlighting risks of export weak performance, policy shortfalls, and overall economic outcomes below expectations.