20251116-国泰期货-Fuel_Oil_Market_Report_Weekly_35页_3mb

Fuel Oil Market Summary

• Market Overview: This week, fuel oil prices declined along with crude oil, but light sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) held up better than heavy sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) during the downturn.

• HSFO Analysis: Weakness in HSFO persists due to high Middle Eastern export volumes, a shallow spot market premium, and the seasonal shift away from demand sectors like shipping and power generation. Short-term reversal is unlikely.

• LSFO Strength: The disappearance of LSFO on the spot market is linked to refinery maintenance or conversion to gasoline and diesel production, limiting supply. Spot discounts are recovering, and dominance over HSFO is expected to continue if gasoline/diesel margins remain attractive.

• Pricing Dynamics: LSFO-FU price difference may rebound, while HSFO is capped at FU crack oscillation. Inventory levels and global imported/exported amounts provide additional market context.

• Market Risks: Key risks include ongoing geopolitical conflicts and U.S.-China trade negotiations, which could impact prices.

• Supply and Demand: Refinery utilization and global shipping bunker fuel sales indicate moderate demand; supply is constrained by maintenance and production shifts. Chinese fuel oil imports and exports show stability in quantities.

• Price and Spread Changes: Asia-Pacific prices fell, with Singapore and Fujairah markets leading price drops. Spreads between HSFO and LSFO narrowed, reflecting market tightness.

• Recommendations: Monitor LSFO-LU cracks and inventory changes for trading opportunities, with caution to external risks.