20230917-国联证券-银行周报_静待政策组合拳成效逐步显现_12页_664kb

Bank Industry Weekly Report Summary

Market Performance

During the week of 9/11 to 9/15/2023, the bank sector outperformed the broader market, with a 0.51% gain compared to the Shanghai Composite's 0.03%. Sub-sectors saw mixed results: state-owned banks rose by 0.8%, asset management companies fell by 0.06%, city commercial banks increased by 0.68%, and rural commercial banks climbed by 1.98%. Top performers included RuiFeng Bank (+406%), HuNongShangHang (+272%), and QingDao Bank (+235%).

Interest Rates

The 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 5.2 basis points to 2.62%. Interbank rates rose significantly, with the overnight SHIBOR averaging 1.76% (+129.8 bps) and the 7-day SHIBOR at 1.92% (+116.4 bps). Commercial paper rates also increased or varied, reflecting market conditions.

Liquidity

The central bank's MLF operation released 591 billion RMB net, with net reverse repo auctions netting 70 billion RMB. Total open market operations were 184 billion RMB net, with significant cash outflows from banks. Bank deposits saw high peer LPR and interbank activity, with overall peer liquidity rising due to central policy support.

Fund Flows

SHConnect inflows boosted bank exposures by 0.28% in value and 0.86% in quantity, with State Grid maintaining top holdings, though losses were noted for some large caps. Individual stock performance showed mixed results across the week, with investors favoring banks with improving fundamentals.

Real Estate and Local Government Bonds

Real estate sales showed a sharp increase in major cities, with 30 large cities' sales up 86.1% YoY. Local government bond net financing jumped, indicating strengthened policy support for infrastructure.

Industry News Highlights

Recent events include the People's Bank of China lowering the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 25 basis points for liquidity support, followed by MLF operations and housing policy adjustments in cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen to stimulate demand. Statistics showed improved loan growth in August 2023.

Investment Recommendations

Policy-driven loan growth is poised to support economic recovery, particularly benefiting state-owned banks. The RRR cut and improved credit conditions are expected to ease bank liquidity and enhance net interest margins. Recommended stocks include lower-valuation high-dividend options like ICBC, CCB, and PSB, as well as PSB following valuation recovery. Maintain a "stronger than large" rating for the sector.

Risk Assessment

Potential risks include suboptimal economic growth, rapid asset quality deterioration, or sharp interest rate declines, which could strain bank profitability and solvency.

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