2025-06-11-Jefferies-森润（RUN）_噢_天呐_众议院法案针对住宅太阳能；评级下调至表现不佳_目标价降至5美元_15页_1mb

Jefferies downgrades Sunrun (RUN) to Underperform, lowering the price target to $5 from $6, citing ongoing concerns over IRA policy uncertainty, fluctuating tariffs, and a weakening residential solar market. The downgrade reflects expectations of a >50% decline in U.S. residential solar total addressable market (TAM) due to proposed budget cuts in tax incentives, potentially eroding market confidence. Key financial estimates, including revenue and MW deployments for 2030, are revised downward to account for these headwinds. The company is expected to pivot through higher PPA/lease rates, cost optimizations, and exiting non-core states, but faces challenges from reduced tax equity proceeds and potential declines in project financing. Risks include further market contraction, supplier disruptions from FEOC-like provisions, and sustained macro uncertainty, while opportunities may arise if credits are reinstated or utility rates rise. valuation, based on Sum of the Parts (SOTP) approach, incorporates a revised blended ITC rate and higher discount rates, reflecting increased risk in development portfolios. The long-term outlook for residential solar remains challenged, with no clear indicators of policy support from Senate, leading to amplified volatility in shares.