2025-05-28-Jefferies-森润（RUN）_众议院总是赢-或者并非如此_在IRA明确之前重申持有_16页_1mb

Equity Research Summary: Sunrun (RUN)

• Report Date: May 28, 2025
• Equity Analysts: Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Paul Zimbardo, Dushyant Ailani, Hannah Velasquez, Whitney Mutalemwa, Qudrat Qureshi
• Rating: Hold
• Price Target: $6.00 (down from $7.19)

Key Analysis Points

Policy Uncertainty and IRA Revisions

• The House's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) includes a strict cutoff for residential solar leases in 2026, potentially revoking 48E tax credits unless Senate softens the policy.
• Key Senate figures (e.g., Murkowski, Thune, Collins, Tillis) are defending the IRA, but a Senate revision is anticipated. If leases are allowed, Sunrun's strategic safe harbor approach could extend its ITC runway.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue and EBITDA: Projected declines in installations and blended ITCs through 2030 due to policy uncertainty. Revenue growth slowed in 2023-2024, with EBITDA improving slightly in recent quarters (e.g., $55M in Q1A 2025 vs. -$3,074M in FY23).
• Cash Generation: Estimated at $300-350MM for FY25 and beyond, offsetting lower ITCs with higher PPA/lease rates and reduced customer acquisition costs (CAC).
• MWs Deployed: Declined to 841.4MW by Q1-2025; future growth assumed to decline similarly without policy clarity.

Valuation Update

• Price target lowered to $6 from $7 due to revised forecasts, higher discount rates (OpCo rate at 14.8%, DevCo at 26.5%), and uncertain ITC phase-outs.
• Valuation uses a Sum of the Parts (SOTP) approach, valuing existing contracts ("OpCo") and future contracts ("DevCo"). Implied market cap is $1,444MM at $6/shar.

Catalysts and Risks

• Catalysts: Senate policy softening on resi leases, successful execution of safe harbor strategy, rising utility rates boosting solar demand.
• Risks: Potential ITC termination in 2028-2030, slower US residential solar recovery, higher interest rates.

Investment Outlook

• Maintain Hold due to policy uncertainty and declined price target. Sunrun is positioned as a leader in safe harbor strategy, but long-term viability hinges on IRA resolution.