20250830-华安证券-迎驾贡酒-603198.SH-迎驾贡酒25Q2点评_加速调整静待修复_4页_480kb

25Q2 and H1 2025 Performance Overview
Yingtai Gongsuo Wine experienced a significant decline in quarterly and half-year results. For the second quarter of 2025 (25Q2), revenue fell 24.13% to 11.13 billion yuan, and net profit decreased 35.20% to 3.02 billion yuan. The first half of 2025 (H1) saw a 16.89% YoY drop in revenue to 31.60 billion yuan and an 18.19% YoY decline in net profit to 11.30 billion yuan. The primary drivers of these declines were category-specific factors, such as underperformance in mid-high and ordinary wines, and regional issues, particularly in provincial foreign markets where sales dropped 36.4% YoY for Q2.

Factors Causing the Decline

• Categories: Mid-high end and ordinary wine revenues declined by 23.6% and 32.9% YoY in Q2, driven by product aging, competition, and reduced channel collaboration.
• Regions: Domestic sales saw a 20.3% YoY drop, while foreign market revenue fell 36.4% YoY, with few net new distributor additions. Although the洞藏series maintained stability in Henan province, overall contraction in lower-tier products and aggressive competitor actions hindered recovery.

Financial Analysis
Net profit margin worsened due to a 2.8 percentage point decrease in gross margin, attributed to reduced scale efficiency. Operating costs increased, with sales and management expenses rising despite industry pressures. Key financial metrics show a projected P/E ratio of approximately 17x for 2025, reflecting deterioration in profitability but steady ROE around 17-18%.

Investment Recommendation and Outlook
The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the stock, based on adjusted earnings forecasts. For 2025-2027, revenue is expected to decline 15.1% in the first year but grow 4.9% and 7.8% in the subsequent years, with net profit similarly starting with a 17.2% drop and stabilizing positive growth. The valuation, with a P/E of 17x to 14x and P/B around 3-4x, supports the buy recommendation, though risks include slower industry recovery and intensified competition.

Key Risks

• Industry and market risks: Slower-than-expected recovery in consumer demand and potential worsening competition.
• Operational risks: Product obsolescence for lower-end lines and continuous challenges in expanding foreign markets.