2024-08-26-亚开行-新兴经济体的债务冲击与产出和通胀动态（英）_30页_1mb

Debt Shocks Analysis Summary

Key Findings:

1. Output and Inflation Responses:

   • An unanticipated increase in public debt leads to significant declines in real GDP and increases in inflation.
   • The effect is more pronounced during economic downturns (state-dependent effect).

2. Moderating Factors:

   • Higher initial debt, tighter domestic financial conditions, and lower income levels amplify GDP declines.
   • Tighter global financial conditions mitigate negative effects on GDP.

3. Nonlinearities:

   • Debt shocks have stronger negative impacts on GDP in high-debt economies and during recessions.
   • Effects on inflation vary by economic fundamentals; no consistent pattern across regions.

4. Regional Differences:

   • Non-Asian emerging economies exhibit stronger negative GDP responses (e.g., -0.1% 1-year impact) compared to Asian economies.
   • Inflation responses in Asian EMEs are minimal in both the short and long term.

5. Policy Implications:

   • Fiscal consolidation should prioritize longer-term debt sustainability to reduce output loss and inflation risks.
   • Building fiscal buffers during good times and enhancing macroeconomic credibility can ease debt shock impacts.

Robustness:

• Results hold across sensitivity checks (e.g., lag controls, alternative shock measurements).