2024-08-26-亚开行-新兴市场和发展中经济体的公共与私人投资乘数_以亚洲为重点的跨国分析（英）_44页_1mb

Summary

This paper examines the growth effects of public and private investment shocks using a cross-country analysis of emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), with a focus on Asia. The study introduces new measures of investment shocks based on cyclically adjusted investment data to identify exogenous changes.

The findings reveal that public investment shocks generally have a stronger positive impact on growth compared to private investment shocks in EMDEs. The effect is particularly pronounced during recessions. A public investment shock equivalent to 1% of GDP increases real GDP by about 1.2% over five years, while a private shock yields roughly one-third of this effect. Public investment shocks in EMDEs (including Asia) also stimulate private investment and consumption, demonstrating a crowding-in effect. However, these effects are smaller and shorter-lived in Asia overall, though positive in South Asia.

Asia as a whole shows near-zero average growth impact from public investment, contrasting with Latin America's positive response. Within Asia, South Asia exhibits significant growth potential from public investment, likely due to lower initial infrastructure levels, while East Asia shows little effect. The paper emphasizes the importance of fiscal health and public spending efficiency to enhance the growth impact of public investments.

The results contribute to existing literature by using a broad country sample (98 EMDEs, including 20 Asian economies) and a novel methodological approach, offering insights for policymakers aiming to leverage fiscal space and ensure countercyclical stimulus effectiveness.