2025-06-08-亚开行-估算亚洲经济体缺失的出口（英）_44页_2mb

报告摘要

Estimating Asian Economies’ Missing Exports Summary

This paper assesses the export potential of Asian economies using a structural gravity model and evaluates factors such as trade policies and logistics efficiency.

Key Findings:

Asian economies on average have a missing export gap equivalent to 6% of GDP.
Post-GFC, the gap widened due to slower growth in observed exports compared to potential.
Regional variations:
- Southeast and East Asia outperformed potential exports.
- Central, South, Caucasus, and West Asia underperformed significantly.
Export promotion opportunities: Destinations like South Asia, EU, US, and PRC show large untapped potential for many Asian economies.
Logistics efficiency: Reducing time to export improves trade performance (e.g., 1 extra day reduces exports by 9-18%).

Recommendations:

Prioritize targeted export promotion in underperforming markets.
Improve logistics to reduce export compliance time and enhance competitiveness.
Leverage gravity model insights to identify high-growth export destinations.

This study underscores the importance of enhancing trade infrastructure and strategic partnerships to unlock economic growth potential in Asia.

展开完整摘要