2016年-数据局_BI：201625大趋势报告_32页_5mb

报告摘要

2016 Big Tech Predictions Summary

Core Content Overview

This report outlines 25 predictions for the year 2016 across five key verticals: Mobile, E-Commerce, Digital Media, Payments, and the Internet of Things (IoT). It highlights how digital technologies will continue to disrupt traditional industries and reshape business models, consumer behavior, and market dynamics.

Key Predictions and Insights

1. Internet of Things (IoT)

Connected Cars:
- Two-thirds of new cars shipped in the US will be connected to the internet by 2016.
- Automakers are using IoT for tracking usage and pushing over-the-air updates.
- Consumer demand for in-car technology is a major driver for this trend.
- 37% of recent car buyers in China, the US, and Germany would switch automakers for access to data, media, and apps.
Self-Driving Cars:
- The US will receive federal guidance on self-driving car regulations, which will enable states to enact their own laws.
- Federal oversight is critical for the widespread adoption of self-driving cars.
- BI Intelligence predicts consumer-operated self-driving cars by 2019.
Cyber Insurance Demand:
- The growth of IoT will increase the need for cyber insurance policies.
- Companies will seek coverage against data theft and remote device control.
- Currently, only a few insurance firms offer cyber insurance, but demand is expected to surge.
IoT in Oil and Gas:
- Oil companies will adopt IoT to maximize efficiency in the supply chain.
- IoT optimization could add up to $1 billion in profit for a $50 billion revenue oil company.
- The oil industry will see a significant increase in IoT ecosystem demand.
Insurance and IoT:
- Insurance companies will use IoT devices to price policies more accurately.
- Health and home IoT devices will be used alongside car tracking.
- IoT will enable insurers to monitor user behavior and reduce risk.

2. Digital Media

Mobile Video Competition:
- Facebook will dominate short-form video, surpassing YouTube in video uploads and views.
- Snapchat will expand with exclusive partnerships and may go public in 2016.
- YouTube will rely on YouTube stars and its Red service for growth.
Video View Standards:
- Lack of standards for online video views will be a major point of contention.
- Platforms like Facebook and YouTube use different metrics (views vs. view time), leading to disputes over fair measurement.
- Subscription-based services like Netflix and Amazon Prime will face pressure to disclose viewing data.
Native Advertising Growth:
- Ad blocking will drive a shift towards native advertising, which does not disrupt user experience.
- Native ads (social, video, sponsored content) will gain traction as a solution.
- Publishers like The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal are leading the way in native content.
- Google’s DoubleClick platform will facilitate programmatic native ad buying.
Cable Companies and Streaming:
- Cable companies will increase streaming prices and tier content to offset declining pay-TV subscriptions.
- Consumers may pay more for online content as a result.
- This trend mirrors Hulu’s model.
Yahoo’s Strategic Shift:
- Yahoo is expected to sell its core business to a telecommunications company.
- Verizon has expressed interest in acquiring Yahoo.
- The move is likely to be driven by the need to monetize user data.

3. Mobile

Wireless Carrier and Pay-TV Merger:
- A major merger between a wireless carrier and a pay-TV company is predicted for 2016.
- This will help carriers improve coverage and cable companies expand digital offerings.
- T-Mobile and Sprint are potential candidates for such a merger.
Indonesia as a Smartphone Market:
- Indonesia is expected to become one of the fastest-growing smartphone markets.
- The country will have nearly 60 million smartphone users by 2016.
- Government investment in telematics and rising per capita income will drive growth.
- Xiaomi, Samsung, Oppo, and Haier are expanding their presence in Indonesia.
Xiaomi Entering the US Market:
- Xiaomi will begin selling phones in the US in 2016.
- The company has already launched accessories in the US and is preparing for a phone launch.
- Marketing, support, and legal challenges will be hurdles, but Xiaomi's affordability and quality are strong advantages.
Disappearing Carrier Contracts:
- US carriers will lose gatekeeper status as contracts decline.
- Consumers will increasingly buy devices directly from manufacturers.
- This will accelerate the smartphone upgrade cycle from 2–3 years to a shorter period.
Enterprise Apps Growth:
- Enterprise apps will reach new heights in 2016.
- Companies like Apple and IBM will expand their enterprise app offerings.
- The volume of enterprise apps is expected to grow over 100%.
- Security and BYOD (Bring Your Own Device) will drive demand for enterprise solutions.

4. E-Commerce

Mobile Ordering Apps:
- Quick-service restaurants (QSRs) will prioritize mobile ordering to boost sales.
- 80% of the top 20 QSR brands are testing or offering mobile ordering.
- Loyalty programs and rewards will be used to incentivize customer usage.

5. Payments

Mobile Payments Expansion:
- Apple, Google, and Samsung will expand commerce experiences around their payment products.
- Focus will be on loyalty, store cards, and coupons.
- In-store components using beacons will push personalized offers to customers.
- Mobile payments will be driven by incentives like rewards and discounts.
Unified Blockchain Solutions:
- Blockchain will move beyond a fad as global banks adopt a unified solution for inter-bank transactions.
- The technology will reduce costs and eliminate the need for intermediaries.
- Thirty global banks have joined R3CEV to develop an open-source blockchain platform.

Summary of Key Trends

Disruption Across Industries:
- The rise of mobile and IoT is reshaping retail, media, payments, and finance.
- Consumer demand for convenience and data-driven services is a key driver.
Growth of Emerging Markets:
- Indonesia is set to become a major smartphone market.
- Mobile adoption is expected to grow rapidly in regions with expanding internet access and rising incomes.
Shift in Business Models:
- Companies are adapting to new digital realities, including IoT integration, mobile-first strategies, and data-driven pricing.
- Insurance, automotive, and finance sectors are leading the way in IoT and mobile adoption.
Regulatory and Market Changes:
- Federal guidance on self-driving cars and mobile payment standards will be crucial.
- The decline of carrier contracts will change how consumers access and upgrade smartphones.
Technology-Driven Innovation:
- Native advertising, enterprise apps, and blockchain are expected to revolutionize digital marketing and financial systems.