20171214-USDA-Feed_Outlook_17页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Feed Outlook Report (FDS-17I, December 14, 2017)

Core Content

This report provides an outlook on U.S. feed grain markets for the 2017/18 marketing year, focusing on corn, sorghum, barley, and oats. It includes updates on production, supply, demand, and prices, with a special emphasis on the impact of China's increased sorghum imports on global markets.

Main Points

Sorghum Market Outlook

U.S. Sorghum Exports: Projected to increase by 50 million bushels to 260 million bushels due to strong export sales to China.
Ethanol Use: Sorghum used for ethanol is projected to decrease by 50 million bushels, as more sorghum is diverted to export markets.
China's Role: China's large sorghum imports have driven the increase in U.S. exports. These imports are expected to rise by 2.0 million bushels to 2.0 million bushels, raising global supply to 391.2 million bushels.
Prices: The average price received by U.S. sorghum producers remains at $3.10 per bushel, though the price range has narrowed. Sorghum is typically priced at 92-95% of corn prices, but in some markets (e.g., Texas and Louisiana), it is priced at 113% of corn.
Global Sorghum Use: World sorghum disappearance is projected to increase by 1.3 million tons to 8.4 million tons, with China being the main driver of this increase.

Corn Market Outlook

Corn Use for Ethanol: Projected to increase by 50 million bushels to 5,525 million bushels, as sorghum is pulled away from ethanol production due to increased exports to China.
Corn Exports: Projected to remain at 1,925 million bushels, with no changes in feed and residual use or nonfuel food, seed, and industrial use.
Total Corn Use: Remains at 14,485 million bushels, with a carryout of 2,437 million bushels.
Corn Prices: The projected corn price range is $2.85 to $3.55 per bushel, with a midpoint of $3.20 per bushel.

Barley Market Outlook

Barley Price: Projected to decrease by 10 cents per bushel to $4.50 due to recent malting barley market trends.
Malting Barley: Prices are lowered to $4.70 per bushel.
Feed Barley: Prices remain unchanged at $3.05 per bushel.
Barley Supply and Demand: No changes in supply, demand, or price this month.

Oats Market Outlook

Oats Supply, Demand, and Price: No changes are reported this month.

International Outlook

Global Coarse Grain Production: Forecast to increase by 1.4 million tons to 1,323.9 million tons.
China's Corn Production: Increased by 0.9 million tons to 215.9 million tons, as the area planted for corn rose by 0.4 million hectares.
EU Corn Production: Raised by 0.5 million tons to 60.1 million tons, primarily due to higher production in Romania.
Russia's Corn Production: Reduced by 1.0 million tons to 14.0 million tons due to slower-than-expected progress in harvest.
Global Coarse Grain Use: Projected to increase by 1.7 million tons to 1,354.1 million tons, with China's sorghum imports being a key factor.

Ethanol Byproduct Trade

Byproduct Feed Shipments: Increased by 2% in the first two months of the 2017/18 crop year.
DDGS: The largest byproduct category, with 1.9 million tons shipped, a slight decline from last year.
CGF and CGM: Shipments increased significantly, with CGF rising by 47% to 272,000 tons and CGM at 104,000 tons.
Major Buyers: Mexico, Turkey, Indonesia, South Korea, Ireland, and the United Kingdom are highlighted as key importers of ethanol byproducts.

Key Information

China's Sorghum Imports: Expected to increase by 1.3 million tons, which has shifted the U.S. sorghum market focus from ethanol to export.
EU Production: Romania's record corn yield is a key contributor to the increase in EU corn production.
U.S. Export Commitments: Increased due to strong sales to China, affecting domestic ethanol production.
Global Trade Trends: World sorghum trade is projected to increase by 1.3 million tons, while corn trade is also trending upward.
Brazil's Corn Imports: Increased by 0.4 million tons, despite domestic supplies, due to competitive prices and concentrated poultry production in the southern region.

Tables and Figures

Table A1: Provides a summary of global and U.S. coarse grain production changes for the 2017/18 crop year.
Table A2: Details changes in foreign coarse grain production by country and type of grain.
Map A: Visualizes changes in corn production for the 2017/18 crop year.
Table B: Summarizes changes in global and U.S. coarse grain consumption.
Map B: Displays changes in corn domestic consumption for the 2017/18 crop year.

Contacts and Resources

Contact Information:
- Tom Capehart (Domestic): tcapehart@ers.usda.gov
- Olga Liefert (International): oliefert@ers.usda.gov
Subscription Information: Available via the USDA e-mail notification service.
Data Sources:
- Feed Grains Database
- WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates)
Related Websites:
- Mann Library Feed Outlook
- Grain Circular
- ERS Corn Topic Page