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Summary of U.S. Corn Outlook and Global Coarse Grains (April 13, 2017)

Core Content Overview

This document provides an updated outlook for U.S. corn and other feed grains for the 2016/17 marketing year, as well as projections for the 2017/18 crop. It also outlines the global coarse grain production, use, and trade trends for the same period.

U.S. Domestic Outlook

Corn Utilization

• Projected U.S. corn food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use increased by 50 million bushels to 5,450 million, raising the total FSI use to 6,895 million bushels.
• Feed and residual use decreased by 50 million bushels to 5,500 million, driven by lower disappearance in the first half of the marketing year and increased ethanol use.
• Total disappearance for the marketing year remains unchanged at 14,620 million bushels.
• Corn for ethanol continues to rise, supported by strong production data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and high export levels.
• Grain consuming animal units (GCAU) increased slightly to 95.95 million, with feed and residual use at 1.59 tons per GCAU, up from the previous month.

Planting Intentions for 2017/18

• Corn planting intentions are 4% lower than the previous year, at 90.0 million acres.
• Major producing states such as Iowa, Texas, and Minnesota reported significant declines in planting intentions.
• Only Kansas reported an increase, with 100,000 more acres.
• Sorghum planting intentions are 14% lower, at 5.8 million acres.
• Barley planting intentions are 17% lower, at 2.5 million acres.
• Oats planting intentions are 5% lower, at 2.7 million acres.

March 1 Corn Stocks

• March 1 corn stocks are 4,908 million bushels on farms and 3,708 million bushels off farms, totaling 8,616 million bushels, a 10.2% increase from the previous year.
• Onfarm holdings now account for 57% of total stocks, reflecting higher expectations for corn prices.

Projected Corn Price

• The season-average corn price received by farmers is unchanged, with a forecast range of $3.25 to $3.55 per bushel, and a midpoint of $3.40.

Global Coarse Grain Outlook

Production

• Global coarse grain production for 2016/17 is forecast to increase by 4.4 million tons, reaching a record of 1,346.1 million tons.
• Brazil leads the increase with 93.5 million tons of corn, driven by expansion of the second-crop corn area.
• Argentina, Mexico, and Indonesia also reported higher corn production.
• Sorghum production is slightly lower, with reductions in Mexico and Colombia.
• Oats production is slightly higher, mainly due to increased output in Norway.

Use

• Global coarse grain domestic use is projected to increase by 2.8 million tons, reaching 1,006.4 million tons.
• Corn domestic use is up 3.2 million tons, with the largest increase in Mexico due to higher livestock numbers and domestic demand.
• Sorghum and barley use are each down by 0.3 million tons.

Stocks

• Global coarse grain ending stocks are forecast to rise by 2.8 million tons to 195.0 million tons.
• Mexico and Brazil show the most significant increases in stocks, at 0.8 million tons and 0.7 million tons, respectively.

Trade

• World coarse grain trade remains unchanged at 182.3 million tons for the October-September trade year.
• Argentina and Ukraine are expected to increase corn exports, while EU and Russia reduce their exports.
• Mexico and Vietnam are expected to increase corn imports, while Venezuela and Indonesia decrease.

Key Figures and Data

• Total FSI use: 6,895 million bushels
• Total feed and residual use: 5,500 million bushels
• U.S. corn planting intentions for 2017/18: 90.0 million acres
• U.S. sorghum planting intentions for 2017/18: 5.8 million acres
• U.S. barley planting intentions for 2017/18: 2.5 million acres
• U.S. oats planting intentions for 2017/18: 2.7 million acres
• March 1 corn stocks: 8,616 million bushels
• Projected corn price range: $3.25 to $3.55 per bushel

Contacts and Resources

• Tom Capehart (domestic): tCAPEhart@ers.usda.gov
• Olga Liefert (international): oliefert@ers.usda.gov
• Subscription: ERS e-mail notification service
• Data Sources:
  • Feed Grains Database
  • WASDE Reports
  • World Agricultural Outlook Board

Additional Notes

• Feed and residual use for the first half of the 2016/17 crop year is 5.1% higher than in 2015/16.
• Sorghum feed and residual use decreased by 10 million bushels, due to higher March 1 stocks and abundant corn supplies.
• U.S. corn exports for 2016/17 are unchanged at 56.5 million tons.
• Weather conditions and economic factors are expected to influence 2017 hay harvest and planting decisions.

Conclusion

The outlook highlights strong ethanol demand and increased corn production in several countries, which is driving changes in utilization and trade dynamics. The U.S. is projected to plant fewer acres for corn and sorghum in 2017/18, with domestic use and stock levels showing positive trends. Global trade is shifting due to increased supplies from Brazil and Argentina, and economic instability in countries like Venezuela.