20140114-USDA-Feed_Outlook_18页_338kb

报告摘要

Summary of Feed Outlook (FDS-14a) - January 14, 2014

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and global feed grain outlook for the 2013/14 marketing year. It includes updates on production, supply, use, and prices for corn, sorghum, barley, oats, and hay, as well as international trade and production trends for coarse grains.

Main Points

U.S. Corn and Sorghum Production and Use

Corn Production: Estimated at 13,925 million bushels, a decrease of 64 million bushels from the prior forecast, primarily due to a 1.6 bushel-per-acre yield reduction.
Sorghum Production: Reduced by 27 million bushels to 389 million, driven by lower yields and harvested area.
Feed and Residual Use: Forecast to increase by 100 million bushels for corn and 25 million for sorghum, leading to a 161 million bushel decrease in ending stocks.
Corn Use by Sector:
- Ethanol: Increased by 50 million bushels.
- HFCS, glucose, and dextrose: Reduced by 10, 10, and 30 million bushels, respectively.
- Food, seed, and industrial use: Unchanged.
Corn Prices: Midpoint of the price range remains at $4.40 per bushel, with a projected 2013/14 price of $2.49 per bushel, significantly lower than the previous year's average of $6.89.
Sorghum Prices: Midpoint increased by $0.10 to $4.20 per bushel, with a range from $3.90 to $4.50 per bushel.

U.S. Barley and Oats

Barley Production: Unchanged at 320 million bushels, with a 6% increase from the 2012/13 estimate.
Barley Feed and Residual Use: Reduced by 10 million bushels, with ending stocks increasing to 90 million bushels.
Barley Price: Midpoint remains at $6.00 per bushel, with a narrowed range of $5.75 to $6.25 per bushel.
Oats Production: Unchanged at 65.9 million bushels, with a 3% increase from the previous year.
Oats Feed and Residual Use: Increased by 5 million bushels to 43.5 million, leading to a reduction in ending stocks to 33.2 million bushels, the lowest on record.
Oats Price: Remains at $3.60 per bushel, the second highest on record, at 82% of the corn price.

Hay Production and Use

Hay Production: Increased to 135.9 million tons, a 3% rise from the August 2013 forecast, with a 13% increase from the 2012 drought-impacted level.
Alfalfa Production: Down 4% from August forecast but up 11% from 2012.
Hay Stocks: Rose to 89.3 million tons on December 1, up from 76.5 million in 2012, but still below the 10-year average of 101.1 million tons.
RCAU (Roughage-consuming Animal Units): Decreased slightly to 67.08 million, with more roughage available per unit (1.33 tons vs. 1.14 tons).

Silage Production

Corn Silage: Increased to 117.9 million tons, up 4% from 2012, with a 22% rise in yield.
Sorghum Silage: Rose to 5.4 million tons, up 31% from 2012, due to a significant increase in yield.
Total Silage: 123.3 million tons, up from 1.75 tons per unit in 2012 to 1.84 tons per unit in 2013/14.

International Coarse Grain Outlook

Global Production

Global Coarse Grain Production: Increased by 3.1 million tons to 1,259.2 million, largely due to China's record corn production of 217.0 million tons (up 6.0 million tons).
Corn Production: Global corn production increased by 2.6 million tons to 966.9 million, driven by China's production, offsetting declines in the U.S., Argentina, and Russia.
Barley Production: Rose by 1.6 million tons to 144.7 million, with EU production up 0.7 million tons.
Millet, Rye, and Oats: Slightly reduced in production.

Global Use

Global Coarse Grain Use: Increased by 4.2 million tons to 1,227.7 million, with the U.S. accounting for over half the increase.
EU Use: Increased by 1.0 million tons, with higher barley feeding due to reduced wheat feed use.
China Use: Increased by 0.5 million tons due to higher sorghum imports.
Iran and Philippines: Small increases in barley and corn feed use, respectively.

Global Trade and Stocks

World Coarse Grain Trade: Decreased by 1.4 million tons to 139.0 million, with the entire reduction attributed to corn.
China Imports: Reduced by 2.0 million tons to 5.0 million due to U.S. shipments rejected for unapproved genetically modified corn.
U.S. Exports:
- Corn: Unchanged at 0.8 million tons.
- Sorghum: Reduced by 0.5 million tons to 4.0 million due to tight supplies.
Argentina Exports:
- Corn: Reduced by 1.0 million tons to 25.0 million for the local marketing year.
- Barley: Increased by 0.4 million tons to 4.1 million.
Brazil Exports:
- Corn: Increased by 0.5 million tons to 21.0 million for the 2013/14 trade year.
- Local Marketing Year: Raised by 3.0 million tons to 25.0 million.

Global Ending Stocks

World Coarse Grain Ending Stocks: Reduced by 3.0 million tons to 149.6 million.
China: Increased by 4.0 million tons to 72.4 million due to high production.
Brazil: Reduced by 2.0 million tons to 14.0 million due to lower beginning stocks.
Argentina: Reduced by 0.5 million tons due to higher sorghum exports.
Other Countries: Small reductions in ending stocks for Russia, Mexico, Iran, and the EU.

Key Information

Domestic Supply and Use:
- Feed grain supplies dropped 2.2 million metric tons to 395.8 million.
- Total feed grain use for 2013/14 is forecast at 140.7 million tons, up from 115.5 million in 2012/13.
Production and Weather Impact:
- U.S. corn production decreased due to lower yields, while sorghum production was reduced due to lower harvested area and yields.
- Sorghum yields in the 10 objective yield states improved, with Kansas showing a 9.8 bushel-per-acre increase.
Trade Adjustments:
- China's sorghum import prospects increased due to strong U.S. and Australian purchases.
- Mexico's corn imports rose due to increased demand and limited sorghum availability.
Market Trends:
- Ethanol demand remains strong, supported by lower corn prices and higher fuel consumption.
- Sorghum prices are higher relative to corn, limiting additional sales.
- Hay prices are up, with strong cash receipts expected for 2013.

Special Articles and Errata

Special Articles:
- "World Corn Use Expands Despite High Prices in 2012/13"
- "Animal Unit Calculations—First Projections for the 2013/14 Crop Year"
- "High RIN Prices Signal Constraints to U.S. Ethanol Expansion"
Errata:
- Table 5 in the January 2014 report was corrected to reflect an error in the first-quarter corn for ethanol use.