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Economic Research Service Feed Outlook Summary - June 14, 2016

Core Content

The June 14, 2016 Economic Research Service (ERS) Feed Outlook provides updated projections for U.S. and global feed grain markets, including corn, sorghum, barley, and oats. It outlines changes in supply, demand, and prices for the 2015/16 and 2016/17 marketing years, as well as international trade dynamics.

Main Points

Corn Outlook

• 2015/16 Corn Price: Projected to rise by 10 cents to $3.60 to $3.80 per bushel, with a midpoint of $3.70 per bushel.
• 2016/17 Corn Price: Expected to increase by 15 cents to $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel, with a midpoint of $3.50 per bushel.
• Supply and Demand:
  • 2015/16 corn exports increased by 100 million bushels to 1,825 million, while imports rose by 5 million bushels to 60 million.
  • Ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 1,708 million bushels, down 95 million from the previous month.
  • 2016/17 U.S. corn supplies are forecast at 16,178 million bushels due to a lower carryin.
  • Exports for 2016/17 are projected at 1,950 million bushels, up 50 million from the previous month.
  • Global production of coarse grains is forecast at 1,303 million tons for 2016/17, up 48 million tons from 2015/16.
  • Global consumption is projected at 1,306 million tons for 2016/17, up 50 million tons from 2015/16.
  • Global coarse grain trade is expected to fall by 4.6 million tons to 170.5 million tons in 2016/17.

Sorghum Outlook

• 2015/16 Sorghum Use: Increased by 10 million bushels to 565 million bushels due to higher ethanol use.
• 2015/16 Sorghum Exports: Projected at 330 million bushels, up 15 million from last month.
• 2015/16 Sorghum Carryout: Reduced by 10 million bushels to 55 million bushels.
• 2016/17 Sorghum Supplies: Lowered by 10 million bushels to 463 million bushels due to reduced carryin.
• 2016/17 Sorghum Use: Unchanged at 420 million bushels.
• Sorghum Price Range: $3.20 to $3.40 per bushel for 2015/16, and $2.95 to $3.55 per bushel for 2016/17, with a midpoint of $3.30 and $3.25 respectively.

Barley Outlook

• 2015/16 Barley Exports: Decreased by 2 million bushels to 11.0 million bushels.
• 2015/16 Barley Use: Total use is projected at 214 million bushels, with carryout at 99 million bushels.
• 2016/17 Barley Carryin: Increased by 2 million bushels to 101 million bushels.
• 2016/17 Barley Ending Stocks: Raised by 2 million bushels to 103 million bushels.
• Barley Price Range: $5.50 per bushel for 2015/16, with a projected range of $4.80 per bushel for 2016/17.

Oats Outlook

• 2015/16 Oats Imports: Reduced by 2 million bushels to 88 million bushels.
• 2015/16 Oats Exports: Reduced by 300,000 bushels to just under 2 million bushels.
• 2015/16 Oats Ending Stocks: Reduced by 2 million bushels to 58 million bushels.
• 2016/17 Oats Supplies: Unchanged at 407 million bushels.
• 2016/17 Oats Price Range: $1.80 to $2.20 per bushel, with a midpoint of $2.00 per bushel.

Key Information

• Trade Impact: Trade adjustments are a major factor in the corn and sorghum balance sheets.
• Global Trends:
  • World coarse grain production is expected to increase by 48 million tons in 2016/17.
  • World consumption is projected to rise by 50 million tons in 2016/17.
  • Global trade is expected to decrease by 4.6 million tons year over year.
• U.S. Market Share: The U.S. share of world coarse grain trade is projected to rise from 30.9% to 32.4%.
• Next Reports:
  • The next release is scheduled for July 14, 2016.
  • NASS June surveys will impact the next report, which will be released on June 30 and incorporated into the July 12 WASDE report.

Additional Highlights

• Animal Units:
  • GCAUs for 2015/16 are projected at 93.23 million, down 0.439 million from last month.
  • GCAUs for 2016/17 are raised to 95.35 million.
• Feed and Residual Use:
  • For 2015/16, feed and residual use is projected at 146.0 million tons, up from 142.2 million.
  • For 2016/17, feed and residual use is projected at 149.0 million tons, down from 151.9 million.

Contacts and Resources

• Contacts:
  • Tom Capehart (Domestic): tcapehart@ers.usda.gov
  • Stephen MacDonald (International): stephenm@ers.usda.gov
• Subscription:
  • Subscribe to ERS e-mail notifications at http://www.ers.usda.gov/subscribers-to-ers-e-newsletters.aspx.
  • Printed copies can be ordered from the USDA Order Desk at 1-800-363-2068.
• Resources:
  • Feed Monthly Tables: http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/fds-feed-outlook/
  • Feed Chart Gallery: http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gALLERY.aspx
  • Feed Grains Database: http://ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database.aspx

Related Websites

• Feed Outlook: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1273
• WASDE: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1194
• Grain Circular: http://www.fas.usda.gov/grain/Current/default.asp
• World Agricultural Production: http://www.fas.usda.gov/wap_arc.asp
• Corn Briefing Room: http://ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/corn.aspx

Price Projections

• Corn:
  • 2015/16: $3.60 to $3.80 per bushel.
  • 2016/17: $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel.
• Sorghum:
  • 2015/16: $3.20 to $3.40 per bushel.
  • 2016/17: $2.95 to $3.55 per bushel.
• Barley:
  • 2015/16: $5.50 per bushel.
  • 2016/17: $4.80 per bushel.
• Oats:
  • 2016/17: $1.80 to $2.20 per bushel.

Summary of Changes

Data Tables

• Table 1: U.S. quarterly supply and disappearance for feed grains.
• Table 2: Feed and residual use of wheat and coarse grains.
• Table 3: Cash feed grain prices.
• Table 4: Selected feed and feed byproduct prices.

These tables provide detailed data on the supply, demand, and price trends for each grain, offering insights into market dynamics and future projections.