20160114-USDA-Oil_Crops_Outlook_January_2016_12页_217kb

Oil Crops Outlook Summary

Core Content

The Oil Crops Outlook report, published by the Economic Research Service (ERS) on January 14, 2016, provides a detailed forecast of U.S. and global production, supply, and demand for various oil crops, including soybeans, canola, sunflowerseed, flaxseed, cottonseed, and peanuts. It also includes a review of international market developments and price trends.

Main Points

U.S. Soybean Outlook

• Record Production: The 2015/16 U.S. soybean crop is estimated at 3.93 billion bushels, slightly lower than the previous forecast due to reduced harvested acreage and yields.
• Total Supply: Carryover stocks and production have combined to create a 4.15 billion bushel total supply, an increase of 98 million bushels from the previous year.
• Exports: U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.69 billion bushels, a decline from the previous month's estimate and the 2014/15 level.
• Stocks: Season-ending soybean stocks may reach a 9-year high of 440 million bushels.
• Prices: The U.S. season-average soybean price is expected to be $8.05-$9.55 per bushel, significantly lower than the $10.10 per bushel average in 2014/15.
• Crush and Meal: The U.S. domestic soybean crush is forecast unchanged at 1.89 billion bushels, but soybean meal production is expected to decline due to lower extraction rates.
• Exports Impact: A lower soybean meal forecast has trimmed the 2015/16 export forecast by 150,000 short tons.
• International Competition: Improved prospects for Argentine soybean exports are affecting U.S. sales and market prices.

U.S. Canola Outlook

• Production: The U.S. canola crop is estimated at a record 2.88 billion pounds, driven by high acreage and favorable growing conditions in North Dakota.
• Supply: Total supply is expected to increase by 6 percent due to higher production and lower imports.
• Imports: 2015/16 canola imports are forecast at 1.1 billion pounds, a 61 percent decrease from the previous year.
• Crush: Domestic canola crush is expected to be 3.6 billion pounds, down from the previous forecast due to lower imports.
• Stocks: Season-ending canola stocks are forecast to rise to 426 million pounds, a 6-year high.

U.S. Sunflowerseed Outlook

• Production: Sunflowerseed production for 2015/16 is estimated at 2.9 billion pounds, up from 2.2 billion in 2014/15.
• Area: Planted and harvested areas increased by 19% and 15,000 acres, respectively.
• Yield: The U.S. average yield is a record 1,625 pounds per acre.
• Crush: The oil-type sunflowerseed production is expected to increase the crush by 56% to nearly 1.4 billion pounds.
• Stocks: Season-ending sunflowerseed stocks are forecast to rise to 426 million pounds.

U.S. Flaxseed Outlook

• Production: Flaxseed production is forecast to increase by 59% to 10 million bushels.
• Area: Planted and harvested areas increased by 49% and 51%, respectively, to 463,000 acres and 456,000 acres.
• Yield: The national average yield reached 22.1 bushels per acre, second only to the 2009 record.

U.S. Peanut Outlook

• Production: Peanut production for 2015/16 is estimated at 6.2 billion pounds, up from 4.17 billion in 2014/15.
• Area: Peanut area is estimated slightly higher at 1.63 million acres, with a 245,000 acres increase from 2014/15.
• Yield: The U.S. average yield is estimated at 3,963 pounds per acre.
• Stocks: Season-ending peanut stocks are forecast to reach a record high of 2.9 billion pounds.
• Prices: Peanut prices are under pressure, with cash prices approaching the loan rate of $355 per short ton.

U.S. Cottonseed Outlook

• Production: Cottonseed production for 2015/16 is estimated at 4.15 million short tons, down 19% from the previous year.
• Area: Harvested area declined by 14% to 1.3 million acres.
• Crush: The 2015/16 cottonseed crush is expected to be 1.65 million short tons, down 13% from 2014/15.
• Exports: Cottonseed exports are forecast to fall to 100,000 short tons, a 17-year low.
• Stocks: Season-ending cottonseed stocks are forecast to be 392,000 short tons.

Key Information

International Developments

• Argentina:
  • Export tax reduction and foreign exchange controls eliminated have boosted the soybean crush to 42.85 million tons.
  • Soybean meal exports are expected to increase by 450,000 tons to 31.25 million tons.
  • Soybean exports are forecast to rise by 550,000 tons to 11.8 million tons.
• Global Soybean Production: Forecast at 319 million metric tons, down 1.1 million from last month due to reduced U.S. and South African production.
• Global Sunflowerseed Production: Forecast at 39.5 million tons, down 143,000 tons due to crop reductions in Argentina and South Africa, offset by increased Russian production.
• Global Rapeseed Production: Forecast at 67.7 million tons, up 177,000 tons due to increased production in the EU and Russia.
• Canada:
  • Canola demand is robust due to a 17% depreciation of the Canadian dollar.
  • Canola crush is forecast to increase to 8.1 million tons, up 650,000 tons.
  • Canola exports are forecast to rise to 8.7 million tons.
  • Season-ending stocks are expected to fall to 2.15 million tons.

Tables Summary

• Table 1: Annual U.S. soybean supply and disappearance data.
• Table 2: U.S. soybean meal supply and disappearance.
• Table 3: U.S. soybean oil supply and disappearance.
• Table 4: U.S. cottonseed supply and disappearance.
• Table 5: U.S. cottonseed meal supply and disappearance.
• Table 6: U.S. cottonseed oil supply and disappearance.
• Table 7: U.S. peanut supply and disappearance.
• Table 8: U.S. oilseed prices received by farmers.
• Table 9: U.S. vegetable oil and fats prices.

Summary of Trends

• Supply Growth: Multiple oil crops are expected to see increased supply due to higher production and carryover stocks.
• Demand Slowdown: Export sales and shipments for soybeans and other oil crops have slowed, affecting market prices.
• Price Pressures: Prices for soybeans, peanuts, and other oil crops are under pressure due to oversupply and reduced demand.
• International Competition: Argentina's reforms and improved export conditions are influencing global markets and U.S. export prospects.
• Market Dynamics: The U.S. is facing challenges from international competitors in terms of export demand and price competitiveness.