Precious Shipping 1QFY16 Results Summary
核心内容
Precious Shipping (PSL) reported a net loss of Bt1,211 million for the first quarter of fiscal year 2016 (1QFY16), which is 260.8% deeper than the previous year's loss of Bt336 million. This loss was 7.8% wider than the estimated value, indicating a challenging quarter for the company. The report also outlines the firm's financial performance, key drivers of the loss, and the analysts' outlook for the company's earnings in the second half of the year.
主要观点
- TC Rate Decline: The Time Charter (TC) rate fell 21% year-over-year (y-y) to US$4,797/day/vessel, which was better than the estimated US$4,100.
- Revenue Decline: Revenue from dry bulk shipping dropped 18.2% y-y to Bt803 million, primarily due to the weaker baht against the US dollar and lower TC rates.
- Cost Reduction: Total costs decreased slightly by 0.3% due to fuel and port expense savings, but this was not enough to offset the decline in revenue.
- Losses on Asset Sales: The company incurred losses of Bt339 million from the sale of five vessels, which is better than the estimated Bt428 million, but still contributed to the overall loss.
- Asset Impairment Losses: An unexpected loss of Bt155 million on asset impairment for two vessels further impacted the bottom line.
- Financial Cost Increase: Financial costs rose 182.2% y-y due to the write-off of deferred upfront fees following the cancellation of loan facilities and shipbuilding contracts.
关键信息
- Net Loss: The net loss for 1QFY16 is Bt1,211 million, a 260.8% increase from the previous year.
- Earnings Forecast: The net loss for FY16 is expected to widen to Bt1,869 million, up from Bt1,193 million, due to unexpected losses on asset sales and impairment, and increased financial costs.
- Target Price Cut: The target price has been reduced to Bt4.66, from Bt4.88, with a -21.68% decrease.
- Rating: The rating remains 'SELL'.
- EPS: The Earnings Per Share (EPS) for 1QFY16 is -0.78 Bt, down from -0.97 Bt in 1QFY15.
- Market Performance: The closing price is Bt5.95, and the price has declined by 13% relative to the SET index over the past three months.
- Market Capitalization: The market cap is Bt9,278 million or USD264 million.
- P/B Ratio: The Price to Book (P/B) ratio is 0.52x, indicating a discounted valuation.
- Dividend Yield: The dividend yield is 3.4%, and dividends per share (DPS) are 0.20 Bt.
财务数据概览
| 项目 |
1Q16 (Btmn) |
4Q15 (Btmn) |
1Q15 (Btmn) |
q-q |
y-y |
| Sales and Services |
803 |
1,095 |
981 |
-26.6% |
-18.1% |
| Costs of Sales |
1,079 |
1,244 |
1,082 |
-13.3% |
-0.3% |
| Gross Profit |
-275 |
-149 |
-100 |
-84.3% |
-174.0% |
| Operating Profit |
-366 |
-264 |
-189 |
-38.7% |
-94.0% |
| Net Profit |
-1,211 |
-1,512 |
-336 |
19.9% |
-260.8% |
| EPS (Bt) |
-0.78 |
-0.97 |
-0.32 |
19.6% |
-143.8% |
财务比率
| 比率 |
1Q16 (%) |
4Q15 (%) |
1Q15 (%) |
q-q |
y-y |
| Cost of Sales / Sales |
134.23 |
113.63 |
110.23 |
18.1% |
21.8% |
| SG&A Expense / Sales |
11.36 |
10.50 |
9.01 |
8.2% |
26.1% |
| Gross Margin |
-34.23 |
-13.63 |
-10.23 |
-151.2% |
-234.7% |
| Operating Profit Margin |
-45.59 |
-24.13 |
-19.24 |
-88.9% |
-137.0% |
| Net Profit Margin |
-150.76 |
-138.10 |
-34.21 |
-9.2% |
-340.8% |
资产负债表
| 项目 |
1Q16 (Btmn) |
4Q15 (Btmn) |
1Q15 (Btmn) |
q-q |
y-y |
| Assets |
32,286 |
32,458 |
28,238 |
-0.5% |
14.3% |
| Liabilities |
17,404 |
15,972 |
13,473 |
9.0% |
29.2% |
| Paid-up Capital |
1,559 |
1,559 |
1,040 |
0.0% |
50.0% |
| Equities |
14,881 |
16,488 |
14,765 |
-9.7% |
0.8% |
| BVPS (Bt) |
9.54 |
10.57 |
14.20 |
-9.7% |
-32.8% |
| Debt/Equity (x) |
1.2 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
20.6% |
28.6% |
分析师评论
- 1QFY16 总结: 尽管TC rate优于预期，但公司仍面临更大的亏损，主要由于资产销售损失、资产减值和财务成本上升。
- 2QFY16 预期: 尽管BDI在4月上涨了69.5%，但PSL的TC rate增长较慢，因此预计2QFY16仍将亏损。
- 估值调整: 基于P/B为0.52x（类似于公司经历次贷危机时的水平），目标价下调至Bt4.66。
- 评级: 保持'SELL'评级。
公司治理
- 反腐败指标: 公司在反腐败方面有不同等级的进展，包括Level 5 (Extended)、Level 4 (Certified)、Level 3 (Established)、Level 2 (Declared)和Level 1 (Committed)。
- 反腐败政策: 覆盖反贿赂、员工培训和沟通，且已通过SEC认可的审计委员会和独立保证机构认证。
- 信息披露: IOD的调查结果是基于公开信息，不涉及内部数据，因此不构成对公司运营的评价。
行业分类
- 农业与食品行业[AGRO]
- 消费品行业[CONSUMP]
- 时尚：FASHION
- 家居与办公用品：HOME
- 个人用品与制药：PERSON
- 金融行业[FINCIAL]
- 银行：BANK
- 金融与证券：FIN
- 保险：INSUR
- 工业行业[INDUS]
- 汽车：AUTO
- 工业材料与机械：IMM
- 包装：PKG
- 纸张与印刷材料：PAPER
- 石化与化工：PETRO
- 钢铁：STEEL
- 房地产与建筑行业[PROPCON]
- 建筑材料：CONMAT
- 建筑服务：CONS
- 房地产开发：PROP
- 房地产基金与REITs：PF&REIT
- 资源行业[RESOURC]
- 服务业[SERVICE]
- 商业：COMM
- 媒体与出版：MEDIA
- 医疗健康服务：HELTH
- 旅游与休闲：TOURISM
- 专业服务：PROF
- 交通运输与物流：TRANS
- 科技行业[TECH]
PSR评级系统
| 总回报 |
推荐 |
评级 |
备注 |
| >+20% |
Buy |
1 |
>20% upside from current price |
| +5% to +20% |
Accumulate / Trading Buy |
2 |
+5% to +20% upside from current price |
| -5% to +5% |
Neutral |
3 |
Trade within ±5% from current price |
| -5% to -20% |
Reduce |
4 |
-5% to -20% downside from current price |
| < -20% |
Sell |
5 |
>20% downside from current price |
研究团队
- Louis Wong - Director, Phillip Securities Group, Tel: (852) 2277 6846, Email: louiswong@phillip.com.hk
- Zhang Jing - Research Analyst, Transportation and Automobiles, Tel: (86) 21 51699400-103, Email: zhangjing@phillip.com.cn
- Chen Xingyu - Director, Research Department, Mainland Financial, Tel: (86) 21 51699400-105, Email: chenxingyu@phillip.com.cn
- Fan Guohe - Research Analyst, TMT, Tel: (86) 21 51699400-110, Email: fanguohe@phillip.com.cn
- Chen Geng - Research Analyst, Mainland Property, Tel: (86) 21 51699400-107, Email: chengeng@phillip.com.cn
销售团队
