国际能源署-2024年全球氢能评论（英）-295份_294页_10mb

Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Summary

Core Content

The Global Hydrogen Review 2024, published by the International Energy Agency (IEA), provides an annual analysis of hydrogen production, demand, trade, policy, and innovation worldwide. It highlights the progress and challenges in the development of low-emissions hydrogen, emphasizing the need for coordinated efforts to accelerate its adoption and integration into the energy system.

The report is part of the Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM) Hydrogen Initiative and serves as a key reference for energy sector stakeholders, offering insights into the current status and future prospects of hydrogen technologies.

Main Points

1. Global Hydrogen Demand and Production

• Global hydrogen demand reached 97 million tonnes (Mt) in 2023, up by 2.5% compared to 2022.
• Demand remains heavily concentrated in refining and the chemical sector, with the majority of hydrogen still produced from unabated fossil fuels.
• Low-emissions hydrogen production remains minimal, at less than 1 Mt in 2023, but is expected to grow significantly.
• By 2030, low-emissions hydrogen production from announced projects could reach 49 Mtpa, which is 30% higher than the 2023 projection.
• Electrolysis is the primary driver of low-emissions hydrogen growth, with 520 GW of announced electrolyser capacity.
• Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) for hydrogen projects have increased, with 3.4 Mtpa of production now in FID, a fivefold increase from current levels.

2. Cost Trends and Competitiveness

• Low-emissions hydrogen production is currently more expensive than fossil fuel-based production, but costs are expected to fall significantly.
• Based on the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario, low-emissions hydrogen production costs from renewable electricity are projected to drop to USD 2–9/kg H₂ by 2030, compared to USD 1.5–8/kg H₂ today.
• Fossil fuel-based hydrogen with CCUS is also expected to see cost reductions, especially with falling natural gas prices.
• China is a key player in electrolyser manufacturing, accounting for 60% of global capacity and leading in FID with 40% of global FIDs.

3. Technology Innovation and RD&D

• Government investment in hydrogen RD&D has been increasing since 2016.
• Patent applications rose by 47% in 2022, indicating growing innovation and interest in hydrogen technologies.
• End-use technologies are showing promising results, with several applications in industry, electricity generation, and transport reaching the demonstration stage.

4. Policy and Demand Creation

• Government policies and targets for low-emissions hydrogen demand are expected to reach 11 Mt by 2030.
• However, the current production capacity (3.4 Mtpa in FID and 0.7 Mtpa operational) is still well below this target.
• Policies such as carbon contracts for difference and industry mandates are beginning to take effect, but more ambitious actions are needed to scale demand.
• Public procurement and market development are critical for driving early adoption of low-emissions hydrogen.

5. GHG Emissions and Certification

• The report includes a detailed analysis of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across different hydrogen supply chains.
• The ISO methodology for GHG emissions assessment is a step toward global standardisation, but regulatory alignment is still lacking.
• CertHiLAC was launched in Latin America to promote mutual recognition of certification schemes.
• Upstream emissions from fossil fuel supply chains remain a challenge for accurate GHG assessment.

6. Focus on Latin America

• Latin America is positioned to become a major producer of low-emissions hydrogen due to its abundant renewable energy resources and decarbonised electricity mix.
• By 2030, the region could produce 7 Mtpa of low-emissions hydrogen with a carbon intensity below 3 kgCO₂ eq/kg H₂.
• Industrial hubs and domestic applications such as refining and ammonia production are seen as key opportunities for hydrogen deployment.
• Infrastructure development, including power transmission and storage, is critical to supporting future hydrogen production and demand.

Key Information

• The IEA includes 31 member countries, 13 association countries, and the European Commission in its hydrogen initiatives.
• China leads in electrolyser manufacturing and FID for low-emissions hydrogen projects.
• Technology innovation is accelerating, especially in end-use applications and patent activity.
• Policy support is uneven, with supply-side support being 50% higher than demand-side support.
• Market fragmentation remains a challenge due to divergent certification and regulatory frameworks.
• Infrastructure planning is essential to enable the scale-up of hydrogen projects and reduce deployment risks.

Recommendations

• Accelerate demand creation through industrial hubs and public procurement.
• Support project developers with targeted financial and policy measures to bridge the cost gap.
• Strengthen regulation and certification to ensure transparency and global interoperability.
• Identify and develop hydrogen infrastructure to avoid delays and support market growth.
• Support emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) to expand low-emissions hydrogen production and use, particularly in Africa and Latin America.

Conclusion

The Global Hydrogen Review 2024 highlights the progress and challenges in the hydrogen sector. While low-emissions hydrogen is gaining momentum, cost reductions, policy alignment, and infrastructure development are critical to achieving its full potential. The report also underscores the unique opportunities in Latin America and the need for coordinated action across regions and sectors to ensure sustainable growth and climate impact.