2024年全球氢评价_295页_10mb

报告摘要

Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Summary

Core Content

The Global Hydrogen Review 2024, published by the International Energy Agency (IEA), provides a comprehensive analysis of the global hydrogen landscape, focusing on demand, production, trade, policy, and environmental impact. It also highlights the special attention given to Latin America and the role of technology innovation and investment in shaping the future of the hydrogen sector.

Main Points

Global Hydrogen Demand

In 2023, global hydrogen demand reached 97 million tonnes (Mt), a 2.5% increase compared to 2022.
Demand is still concentrated in the refining and chemical sectors, mainly met by unabated fossil fuel-based production.
Low-emissions hydrogen remains a small portion of the market, with less than 1 Mt produced in 2023.
By 2030, low-emissions hydrogen production could reach 49 Mtpa, a 30% increase from the 2023 estimate, driven largely by electrolysis projects.

Hydrogen Production

Electrolysis is the main driver of low-emissions hydrogen growth, with 520 GW of announced capacity.
Final Investment Decisions (FID) for electrolysis projects increased to 3.4 Mtpa, with 1.9 Mtpa from electrolysis and 1.5 Mtpa from fossil fuels with CCUS.
CCUS-based hydrogen production is growing, especially in North America and Europe, with FID potential increasing more than double in the past year.
Costs of low-emissions hydrogen are expected to decrease significantly, with production costs potentially reaching USD 2–9/kg H₂ by 2030, half of current levels.

Investment and Innovation

Government investment in hydrogen R&D has been increasing since 2016, and the results are starting to show.
Patent applications rose by 47% in 2022, indicating a surge in innovation and commercial potential.
China leads in electrolyser manufacturing, accounting for 60% of global capacity and 40% of FIDs, with continued expansion expected to drive down costs.

Policies and Regulations

Policies and targets for low-emissions hydrogen demand are expected to reach 11 Mt by 2030, but this is still below the current production potential.
Regulatory frameworks for low-emissions hydrogen are being developed, with the ISO methodology providing a standardised approach to GHG emissions.
Mutual recognition of certification schemes is being promoted, especially at COP 28, with Latin America launching CertHiLAC.

GHG Emissions

The report evaluates greenhouse gas emissions across different hydrogen supply chains.
Low-emissions hydrogen is still expensive, but costs are projected to fall significantly by 2030.
Fossil fuel-based hydrogen with CCUS is also expected to see cost reductions due to falling natural gas prices.

Latin America Focus

Latin America is positioned to become a major producer of low-emissions hydrogen due to its abundant renewable energy and decarbonised electricity mix.
By 2030, the region could produce 7 Mt of low-emissions hydrogen with carbon intensity below 3 kgCO₂ eq/kg H₂, which is 3–4 times lower than using unabated natural gas.
Industrial hubs and export opportunities are key to unlocking demand, especially in refining and ammonia production.
Infrastructure development, including transmission lines, is essential to support future production and market growth.

Key Information

IEA Member and Association Countries

Member countries include Australia, Canada, Japan, and the US, among others.
Association countries include China, India, Brazil, and Mexico, which are playing an increasing role in the hydrogen market.

Technology and Innovation

Electrolysis is the primary method for low-emissions hydrogen production.
Patent activity has increased significantly, showing increased innovation and market confidence.

Challenges

Despite progress, delays and cancellations are still impacting project pipelines.
Unclear demand signals, financing hurdles, and regulatory uncertainties are key barriers to growth.
Policy measures are still insufficient to create the necessary demand for low-emissions hydrogen.

Recommendations

Accelerate demand creation through industrial hubs and public procurement.
Support project developers with financial and policy tools to reduce investment risks and drive cost reductions.
Strengthen regulation and certification to ensure transparency and market interoperability.
Identify and develop hydrogen infrastructure early to avoid delays and support market growth.
Support emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) to expand low-emissions hydrogen production and use.

Conclusion

The Global Hydrogen Review 2024 highlights the growth potential of the hydrogen sector, especially in low-emissions hydrogen and Latin America. However, it also underscores the challenges that remain in scaling up production, creating demand, and ensuring regulatory alignment. With stronger policy support, investment, and infrastructure development, the hydrogen sector has the potential to play a significant role in achieving international energy and climate goals.