全球氢能回顾2024_295页_17mb

Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Summary

Core Content

The Global Hydrogen Review 2024 is an annual report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that tracks hydrogen production and demand globally, alongside progress in infrastructure, trade, policy, and innovation. The report highlights the growing interest in low-emissions hydrogen as a critical tool for achieving international energy and climate goals.

Main Viewpoints

• Global Hydrogen Demand: In 2023, global hydrogen demand reached 97 million tonnes (Mt), up by 2.5% from 2022. Demand is still primarily driven by the refining and chemical industries, with most hydrogen produced from unabated fossil fuels. Low-emissions hydrogen remains marginal, with less than 1 Mt produced in 2023, but is expected to grow significantly, reaching 49 Mtpa by 2030 based on announced projects.

• Production Growth: The growth in low-emissions hydrogen production is mainly driven by electrolysis projects, with global announced electrolysis capacity reaching nearly 520 GW. The number of final investment decisions (FID) has doubled in the past year, with 3.4 Mtpa of production now confirmed, split roughly evenly between electrolysis and fossil fuels with carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS).

• Cost Trends: Low-emissions hydrogen is expected to become more cost-competitive by 2030, with production costs from renewable electricity falling to USD 2–9/kg H₂, which is half of current levels. The cost gap with unabated fossil-based hydrogen is expected to shrink significantly. In China, electrolyser manufacturing capacity is strong, accounting for 60% of the global total, and its continued expansion is likely to further reduce costs.

• Demand Creation: Governments are beginning to implement key policies to stimulate demand for low-emissions hydrogen, such as carbon contracts for difference and mandates in aviation and shipping. However, the scale of these efforts is still insufficient to meet climate goals. The report highlights the need for stronger government action to create demand and support offtake agreements.

• Policy and Regulation: The release of the ISO methodology for assessing GHG emissions in hydrogen supply chains is a significant step forward. However, regulatory frameworks across regions remain inconsistent, creating potential market fragmentation. Governments are urged to implement clear and consistent regulations that align with these standards.

• Latin America Focus: Latin America is positioned to become a major low-emissions hydrogen producer, leveraging its abundant renewable energy resources and largely decarbonised electricity mix. The region could produce over 7 Mtpa of low-emissions hydrogen by 2030 with a carbon intensity 3–4 times lower than using unabated natural gas. However, challenges such as uncertain market size and infrastructure development remain.

Key Information

• IEA Member Countries: Include Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Republic of Türkiye, United Kingdom, United States.

• IEA Association Countries: Argentina, Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Morocco, Senegal, Singapore, South Africa, Thailand, Ukraine.

• Announced Projects: The report includes a map of announced low-emissions hydrogen production projects (2024), highlighting the global distribution and regional focus.

• Cost Projections: By 2030, low-emissions hydrogen production costs are projected to fall significantly, becoming competitive with fossil-based hydrogen. The cost gap is expected to narrow to USD 1–3/kg H₂.

• Technology Innovation: Government investment in hydrogen RD&D has been increasing since 2016, with promising results in both supply and end-use technologies. Patent applications have increased by 47% in 2022, indicating growing innovation and commercial potential.

• Infrastructure Development: The report stresses the importance of accelerating infrastructure development, including transmission lines and repurposing existing natural gas pipelines and storage facilities, to support the growth of the hydrogen market.

• Recommendations:

  • Accelerate Demand Creation: Governments should leverage industrial hubs and public procurement to stimulate demand for low-emissions hydrogen.
  • Support Project Developers: Provide targeted support to bridge the cost gap and reduce investment risks.
  • Strengthen Regulation: Implement clear regulations and align with ISO standards to ensure consistency and transparency.
  • Develop Hydrogen Infrastructure: Accelerate the development of infrastructure to avoid delays in scaling up production and demand.
  • Support EMDEs: Provide financial and policy support to emerging markets and developing economies to expand low-emissions hydrogen production and use.

Figures and Data

• Global Hydrogen Production: 97 Mt in 2023.
• Low-Emissions Hydrogen Production: Less than 1 Mt in 2023, expected to reach 49 Mtpa by 2030.
• Electrolysis Capacity: Announced capacity of nearly 520 GW, with 6.5 GW reaching FID in the last year.
• FID Growth: Announced production with FID doubled to 3.4 Mtpa, with 1.9 Mtpa from electrolysis and 1.5 Mtpa from fossil fuels with CCUS.
• Cost Competitiveness: By 2030, more than 5 Mtpa of low-emissions hydrogen could be produced at a cost competitive with fossil fuels, and up to 12 Mtpa with a USD 1.5/kg premium.

Conclusion

The report outlines the progress and challenges in the global hydrogen market, with a special focus on Latin America. While there is significant momentum in low-emissions hydrogen development, the sector still faces hurdles in demand creation, cost reduction, and regulatory alignment. The IEA calls for stronger government action, targeted support for project developers, and accelerated infrastructure development to ensure the successful scaling of hydrogen technologies.