国际能源署-2023年全球氢能评论（英）-2023.9-176页_10mb

报告摘要

Low-emission hydrogen production is expanding (potential 38 Mt by 2030), but costs remain high due to inflation and supply chain issues.
Electrolysis growth is accelerating, especially in China, with capacity set to triple to 4.2 GW.
Infrastructure development is lagging; few projects beyond planning stages will reach final investment decisions (FID) by 2030.
Policy support is increasing, but demand creation lags behind production ambitions.
International trade in hydrogen remains limited but holds potential, requiring standardization and mutual recognition of certification systems.

Worldwide hydrogen demand reached 95 Mt in 2022, mostly from unabated fossil fuels.
Low-emission hydrogen potential could reach 38 Mt by 2030 (currently ~0.7 Mt).

Electrolysis: Costs rising due to inflation, but technology maturity increasing (major deployments in NEOM, Oman).
Fossil fuels with CCUS: Commercial scale-up underway, but high costs and long lead times limit deployment.
Emerging routes: Biomass, natural hydrogen, methane decomposition show promise but face technical/large-scale challenges.

Merchant hydrogen exports: Announced volumes reach 16 Mt by 2030, but infrastructure (pipelines, storage) is a major bottleneck.
Ports and tankers: Existing ammonia infrastructure can support hydrogen trade, but new designs for liquefied hydrogen are emerging.
Geographic focus: Australia, Europe, and North America lead export-oriented projects.

Government strategies: 41 countries have adopted or updated hydrogen roadmaps (targets: 27-35 Mt production by 2030).
Demand incentives: Countries like Germany, Japan, and the US are implementing tax credits, auctions, and CfDs.
Key gaps: Inconsistent environmental certification systems and weak demand-side policies hinder progress.

Patenting surge: Focus shifting toward electrolysis, with European and Japanese leadership.
Cost reduction challenges: Electrolyzer costs may cut by 60% by 2030 if manufacturing scales, but capital costs remain major barriers.

Accelerate demand creation through binding quotas and technology-neutral policies.
Enhance international co-operation for harmonized standards and certifications.
Simplify permitting processes to reduce project delays.
Direct incentives for end-use applications to demonstrate economic viability at scale.

Terms: Low-emission hydrogen includes electrolysis with renewables and fossil-based with CCUS (high capture rates).
Data basis: Projections use IEA scenarios (STEPS, NZE) and publicly available sources through July 2023.
Currency: Values in original currencies/USD, using average exchange rates.