穆迪-全球-信贷市场-当前事件的信贷影响-20171211-21页_1mb

Credit Outlook Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of credit implications related to various current events across different sectors, including Corporates, Infrastructure, Banks, and Insurers. It outlines the credit impacts of specific corporate actions, infrastructure developments, banking regulations, and insurance acquisitions, along with key financial metrics and outlooks.

Main Points and Key Information

Corporates

• Delta Air Lines' joint venture with WestJet is credit positive, as it is expected to generate incremental revenue and earnings without affecting Delta's senior unsecured rating. The partnership will expand Delta's presence in the US-Canada market and enhance frequent flyer benefits.
• TTM Technologies' acquisition of Anaren is credit negative, due to increased leverage and integration risks. The transaction is expected to raise adjusted debt/EBITDA to about 4x from 2.7x, though the company plans to reduce leverage to about 3x within 12-18 months.
• DaVita's sale of DaVita Medical Group (DMG) is credit positive, as the significant cash proceeds will reduce net debt/EBITDA. The sale allows DaVita to focus on its core dialysis business, which has stable and recurring revenue.
• Novatek's launch of the Yamal LNG facility is credit positive, as it enhances the company's business profile and contributes significantly to earnings and cash flow. The facility is one of the lowest-cost liquefaction projects globally.
• Polsat's acquisition of Netia is credit positive, as it strengthens Polsat's fixed-line telecom network and improves its competitive position. The acquisition is expected to be funded from own resources and a revolving credit facility, with minimal impact on leverage.

Infrastructure

• Emera's equity issuance is credit positive, as it reduces the need for additional debt and improves liquidity. However, the company's financial metrics remain weak, with CFO pre-W/C to debt ratio below expectations for its Baa3 rating.

Banks

• Greek banks meeting nonperforming exposure (NPE) targets is credit positive, as it alleviates the NPE burden on their balance sheets. The reduction in NPEs is expected to be around 35% by the end of 2019.
• Landesbank Baden-Württemberg's sale of its legacy structured credit portfolio is credit positive, as it eliminates fees related to a risk shield and reduces balance sheet size. The sale marks the end of the bank's de-risking process.
• Basel Committee's low risk weight for covered bonds is credit positive for issuing banks, especially outside the EU. It makes covered bonds more attractive for non-EU investors and reduces reliance on volatile funding sources.

Insurers

• UnitedHealth's acquisition of DaVita Medical Group is credit positive, as it strengthens UnitedHealth's position in the healthcare services sector.

Key Financial Metrics

• Delta Air Lines will expand its US-Canada routes and is expected to maintain its senior unsecured rating.
• TTM Technologies will see adjusted debt/EBITDA rise to 4x post-acquisition, but plans to reduce leverage to 3x within 12-18 months.
• DaVita expects to maintain adjusted debt/EBITDA at 4.0x or below after the sale of DMG, with a significant reduction in net debt/EBITDA.
• Novatek estimates that each LNG train will contribute RUB30-RUB35 billion to EBITDA, with the first train generating about 12%-15% of reported 2016 EBITDA.
• Emera reported a CFO pre-W/C to debt ratio of 9% for the 12 months ending 30 September 2017, below the 11% expected for its Baa3 rating.
• Polsat expects pro forma Moody's-adjusted gross leverage to rise to 3.4x, with retained cash flow/gross debt remaining above 20%.
• Landesbank Baden-Württemberg had a €4.2 billion legacy structured credit portfolio, which was sold to eliminate risk shield fees and reduce balance sheet size.
• Greek banks reduced NPEs by 7.6% since 2016, exceeding their initial targets by €2.9 billion.

Outlook

• The outlook for most entities remains stable, with the exception of TTM Technologies, which faces integration risks.
• Greek banks will continue to have high levels of problem loans even after meeting NPE targets, limiting upside potential for credit quality and ratings.
• Non-EU banks are expected to become more active investors in covered bond markets due to the Basel Committee's low risk weight, which could improve asset-liability matching and reduce funding costs.