穆迪-全球-信贷市场-信贷展望：当前事件的信贷影响-20180329-19页_915kb

Credit Outlook Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of credit implications of recent corporate and financial developments across various sectors, including Corporates, Infrastructure, Banks, US Public Finance, and Covered Bonds. The analysis highlights both credit positive and credit negative impacts based on the financial and operational changes of the entities involved.

Main Points by Sector

Corporates

• Tallgrass Energy Partners (Ba2 stable):

  • Credit positive: Simplification of corporate structure reduces equity capital costs by eliminating incentive distributions.
  • The transaction will result in a single public entity, TEGP, which will take over TEP's equity interests.
  • TEP will retain a 75% interest in Rockies Express Pipeline (REX, Ba2 positive), simplifying its ownership structure.
  • TEP is expected to maintain a dividend coverage ratio above 1.2x and retain cash flow for growth.
  • The company plans to retire REX's July 2018 bond maturity.
  • The new policy on tax allowances in cost-of-service rates for MLPs does not affect TEP due to its negotiated-rate contracts.

• Bouygues S.A. (Baa1 positive):

  • Credit negative: The acquisition of Alpiq Engineering Services (CHF850 million) will reduce cash balance and increase Moody's-adjusted net debt.
  • The acquisition is expected to increase net debt to €5.0-5.5 billion by December 2018 from €3.6 billion in 2017.
  • The deal is expected to close in the second half of 2018, pending regulatory approvals.
  • The company's funds from operations to gross debt ratio is forecasted to rise to 31-32% over the next 18 months from 30% in 2017.
  • Bouygues' stake in Alstom (Baa2 stable) remains a source of liquidity, and the company may sell shares after its shareholder meeting in July 2018.

• Moby S.p.A. (B2 negative):

  • Credit negative: Fined €29 million by Italy's antitrust regulator for abusing its dominant position in shipping goods between Italy and Sardinia.
  • The fine will strain liquidity, though Moby plans to appeal the decision.
  • The company has €157 million in cash and a €60 million undrawn revolving credit facility as of September 2017.
  • Liquidity is expected to deteriorate due to loan repayments and the uncertainty of the fine's outcome.
  • A European Commission investigation into government grants is ongoing, adding further uncertainty to Moby's financial profile.

• UPC Polska (Ba3 negative):

  • Credit negative: Failed to close the acquisition of Multimedia Polska (MMP), which would have reduced leverage.
  • The deal's withdrawal has made UPC's potential deleveraging less certain.
  • UPC's 2017 leverage was around 5.5x, above the 5.25x downward rating guidance.
  • The sale of UPC Austria to Deutsche Telekom is expected to close in the second half of 2018, generating €1.9 billion in cash proceeds for debt reduction.
  • However, if most proceeds are upstreamed to Liberty Global, credit metrics may remain weak.

Infrastructure

• Dominion Energy (Baa2 negative):
  • Credit positive: Plans to reduce debt through a $1.5 billion equity issuance and non-core asset sales.
  • Parent debt to consolidated debt is expected to fall to the low-30% range from over 48% in 2017.
  • The company is targeting the sale of its 50% interest in Blue Racer Midstream, LLC (B1 stable), potentially generating $1.2 billion in proceeds.
  • The sale of Cove Point LNG terminal to Dominion Midstream Partners is still under review, and if completed, will reduce parent debt.

Banks

• Banrisul (Ba3 stable):

  • Credit negative: Listing of its card payment subsidiary (Cartoes) will reduce common equity and net income, lowering the TCE ratio by about 60 basis points.
  • The listing is subject to central bank approval and will be finalized after Cartoes is officially registered as a public company.
  • If not finalized by 15 December 2018, existing shareholders will receive cash instead of preferred shares.

• Brazil's Banks:

  • Credit negative: New fee cap on debit card transactions (80 basis points) will reduce fee revenue by about 40%.
  • The cap will lower the average fee from 82 basis points to 50 basis points, reducing banks' non-interest earnings.
  • Debit card-related fee revenue accounted for 22.2% of banks' non-interest earnings in 2017.
  • The central bank's policy is expected to increase competition from fintechs, which offer cheaper services and reduce costs for retailers and consumers.

US Public Finance

• Amtrak (A1 stable):

  • Credit positive: The federal spending bill provides increased funding for the Gateway rail project, which includes a new Hudson River tunnel.
  • Amtrak's funding is expected to increase by nearly 30% to $1.94 billion in 2018, supporting its Northeast Corridor service.
  • The project is part of a larger $30 billion initiative, with Amtrak estimating a cost of at least $12 billion for the tunnel alone.
  • Funding will be shared between Amtrak, New York, and New Jersey, with states bearing the majority of the cost.

• US State Housing Finance Agencies:

  • Credit positive: The omnibus spending bill includes a 12.5% increase in Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) authority over four years.
  • This increase will benefit housing finance agencies by providing more funding for affordable housing initiatives.

Covered Bonds

• Estonia:
  • Credit positive: Proposed covered bond framework is expected to diversify bank funding sources.
  • This could improve the financial stability of banks by providing alternative funding options.

Key Information

• Tallgrass Energy: Simplification of corporate structure reduces equity capital costs and aligns equity holder interests.
• Bouygues: Acquisition of Alpiq Engineering Services strengthens construction and rail operations but strains liquidity.
• Moby: Fined €29 million for antitrust violations, with potential impact on liquidity and financial covenants.
• UPC Polska: Failed to acquire Multimedia Polska, affecting leverage and deleveraging prospects.
• Dominion Energy: Debt reduction through equity issuance and asset sales is credit positive.
• Banrisul: Listing of its card payment subsidiary is credit negative due to reduced equity and net income.
• Brazil's Banks: Debit card fee cap is a credit negative, reducing revenue and increasing competition.
• Amtrak: Increased federal funding supports the Gateway rail project, which is credit positive.
• Estonia: New covered bond framework is credit positive for banks.

Summary of Credit Impacts

Conclusion

The document outlines the credit implications of recent corporate, infrastructure, and financial developments. While some companies like Tallgrass and Dominion Energy are seeing credit positive outcomes due to structural improvements and debt reduction, others such as Bouygues, Moby, and Brazil's banks face credit negative impacts due to liquidity strains, increased competition, and regulatory challenges. The US public finance sector, particularly Amtrak and housing finance agencies, benefits from increased funding and support.