穆迪-全球-信贷市场-信贷展望：当前事件的信贷影响-20180528-38页_1mb

Credit Outlook Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the credit implications of various current events across different sectors, including Corporates, Infrastructure, Banks, Insurers, Exchanges, Asset Managers, Sovereigns, US Public Finance, and Securitization. It provides analysis from Moody's Investors Service, detailing how these events affect the credit profiles of companies and entities.

Main Points and Key Information

Corporates

• Libbey Glass: The suspension of dividends is credit positive, indicating a more conservative capital allocation strategy. It aims to improve free cash flow and accelerate deleveraging, with expected debt/EBITDA reduction to 5.2x over 12-18 months. The company is expected to maintain good liquidity over the next 12-18 months.
• BBA's Acquisition of EPIC Aviation: Credit positive, as it increases access to FBO locations and enhances service offerings. The transaction is expected to improve BBA's pro forma gross leverage to around 5.1x at year-end 2018.
• Smurfit Kappa's Acquisition of Reparenco: Credit positive due to strategic alignment and the ability to address short positions in recycled containerboard. The acquisition is expected to have minimal impact on SKG's balance sheet and leverage is expected to remain within the range of 1.75x-2.5x.
• Gazprom's Antitrust Settlement: Credit positive, as it removes regulatory uncertainty and facilitates cross-border gas flows. The settlement includes contractual changes that enhance flexibility and market position in Central and Eastern Europe.
• Sony's Acquisition of EMI Music Publishing: Credit positive, as it strengthens Sony's position in the music publishing sector and enhances its EBITDA margins. The acquisition is within Sony's cash reserves and is expected to have a limited financial impact.
• Tenant Debt Restructuring for ESR-REIT: Credit negative due to the potential loss of rental income from Hyflux. However, the merger with VIT provides some cushion, and the trust is expected to maintain its Baa3 rating.

Infrastructure

• Hawaiian Electric: The Kilauea volcano's lava flow has not significantly impacted its credit profile. The company has alternative power generation capacity to compensate for the loss of PGV's output, and the financial impact is minor.
• Port of Oakland: The extension of its largest maritime lease is credit positive, as it increases revenue certainty and extends contract visibility for over 60% of seaport revenue by 10 years, reducing contract renewal risks.

Banks

• Higher SIFI Asset Threshold: Credit negative as it may lead to increased M&A activity, which could strain balance sheets.
• Union Bank: Credit neutral as robotic process automation is expected to improve efficiency.
• Ghanaian Banks: Credit negative due to rising problem loans amid falling interest rates, which may diminish profitability.
• Singapore's Hyflux Restructuring: Credit negative for creditors, as the restructuring may lead to financial distress.

Insurers

• Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance's Acquisition of BoCommLife: Credit positive for both buyer and seller, indicating a beneficial strategic move.

Exchanges

• CFTC's Guidance on Virtual Currency Derivatives: Credit positive, as it provides clarity and regulatory support for exchanges and clearing houses.

Asset Managers

• Sustainable Finance Proposal: Credit negative, as it increases execution risk and costs for asset managers.

Sovereigns

• Jordan's Tax Law Amendments: Credit positive, as the approval of the amendments supports fiscal stability.

US Public Finance

• Illinois' Withholding of Revenue from City of Harvey: Credit negative for municipalities, as it may impact their financial capacity.

Securitization

• PACE ABS Market Uncertainty: Expected to decline with the Dodd-Frank rollback, which may reduce regulatory burdens and improve market conditions.

Credit Trends and Analysis

• Corporate Leverage: High corporate leverage signals future credit stress, even though default rates remain low. Speculative-grade ratings have increased by 58% since 2009, while investment-grade ratings have expanded by 12%.
• Strategic Acquisitions: Several acquisitions (BBA, Smurfit Kappa, Sony) are viewed as credit positive due to their strategic alignment and potential for revenue and margin improvements.
• Regulatory Developments: Regulatory changes, such as those from the EC and CFTC, are generally credit positive, reducing uncertainty and supporting business operations.
• Geopolitical Factors: The cooling of the US-China trade dispute is credit positive for Chinese corporates, especially those in cyclical industries, as it reduces the risk of adverse economic impacts.
• Real Estate and Leases: The Port of Oakland's lease extensions are credit positive, enhancing revenue certainty. ESR-REIT's tenant restructuring is credit negative but mitigated by its merger with VIT.

Summary of Credit Implications

Conclusion

The credit outlook is shaped by a mix of positive and negative developments across various sectors. Strategic acquisitions and regulatory clarity are generally credit positive, while increased leverage, debt restructuring, and geopolitical tensions are credit negative. The overall trend suggests that while corporate leverage remains high, the credit risk is not yet materializing in defaults, and companies are adapting through restructuring and strategic moves.