穆迪-全球-信贷市场-当前事件的信贷影响-20180226-37页_1mb

Credit Outlook Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of credit implications related to recent corporate, banking, and sub-sovereign events. It evaluates the impact of these developments on credit profiles, leverage ratios, and overall financial health of the entities involved. Key themes include the effects of mergers, acquisitions, and capital restructuring on debt levels and cash flow, as well as the influence of macroeconomic and industry-specific factors on credit ratings.

Main Corporate Highlights

General Mills

• Event: Acquired Blue Buffalo for $8 billion in cash.
• Impact: Credit negative due to increased leverage to 4.6x debt/EBITDA at closing, from 3.3x in November 2017.
• Financing: Combination of cash on hand, new unsecured debt, and $1 billion in new equity.
• Outlook: Management aims to reduce leverage to below 3.0x on a reported basis, with a target of 3.5x by fiscal 2020. Deleveraging will be supported by cost synergies and a conservative financial policy.
• Segment Contribution: Blue Buffalo will add a super premium pet food category, but its contribution is relatively small compared to General Mills' legacy portfolio.

Albertsons

• Event: Merged with Rite Aid.
• Impact: Credit positive due to increased scale, diversified revenue, and leverage-neutral transaction.
• Debt/EBITDA: Pro forma combined ratio of about 6.5x, with potential for cost synergies of $325–$375 million over three years.
• Risks: High leverage, integration challenges, and competitive pressures in both food and drug retail sectors.
• Outlook: Despite potential improvements, the combined company's leverage is expected to remain above 6.0x in the next 12 months.

Coca-Cola

• Event: Plans to use repatriated cash to reduce debt.
• Impact: Credit positive as it aims to reduce gross leverage by 0.3x–0.4x by the end of 2018.
• Debt/EBITDA: Expected to fall to 3.2x this year after debt repayments, from 3.4x in 2017.
• Tax Law Effect: New US tax law allows repatriation of foreign cash without additional taxes, which benefits the company.
• Outlook: Deleveraging will depend on the company's financial policy and use of remaining overseas cash.

ONEOK

• Event: Increased capital spending in 2019–2020.
• Impact: Credit positive as it signals strong earnings growth and accelerated deleveraging.
• Debt/EBITDA: Expected to fall to 4.8x in 2019 from 5.2x in September 2017.
• Projects: Focus on NGL gathering, fractionation, and transportation across key basins like Bakken, SCOOP, and STACK.
• Outlook: EBITDA growth of 10%–15% in 2019–2021 will support deleveraging and dividend coverage.

EQT

• Event: Split into upstream and midstream units.
• Impact: Credit positive for EQM, the midstream MLP, as it gains independence and third-party revenue.
• Debt/EBITDA: Expected to rise to 3.5x–4.0x by 2019, up from 1.6x in Q3 2017.
• Leverage: EQT will shed debt tied to EQM but lose its steady cash flow from the unit.
• Outlook: EQM's EBITDA is expected to roughly double in 2019, supporting its credit profile.

BAE Systems

• Event: Strong 2017 results with improved free cash flow and reduced pension deficit.
• Impact: Credit positive due to better-than-expected free cash flow and leverage reduction.
• Debt/EBITDA: Fell to 4.0x in 2017 from 5.8x in 2016.
• Outlook: Free cash flow is expected to support further deleveraging, with a $1 billion bond repayment in 2019. Risks include execution of order backlog and R&D costs.

DIA (Spanish Food Retailer)

• Event: 2017 results weakened due to price cuts and competition.
• Impact: Credit negative as recurring EBIT fell 58.6% in Q4 2017 and 16% for the full year.
• Rivalry: Mercadona's price cuts and store refurbishment program increased its market share, negatively affecting DIA.
• Outlook: EBITDA is expected to decline in H1 2018 due to store closures, but may recover in H2. Debt/EBITDA is projected to rise to 3.6x in 2018.

ALROSA

• Event: Sold gas assets to Novatek.
• Impact: Credit positive due to enhanced liquidity, with proceeds used for capital investment and debt reduction.
• Liquidity: Includes $130 million in cash, $350 million in available credit facilities, and $2.0 billion in operating cash flow for 2018.
• Debt Coverage: Liquidity comfortably covers short-term debt, capital spending, and dividends.

Banking Highlights

FirstEnergy

• Event: Deactivating the Pleasant power plant.
• Impact: Credit positive as it reduces fixed costs and improves cash flow.

Société Générale

• Event: Introduced biometric face recognition for account opening.
• Impact: Credit positive due to enhanced security and operational efficiency.

ING DiBa

• Event: Planned acquisition of online lender Lendico.
• Impact: Credit positive as it expands digital banking capabilities.

Ukraine

• Event: Proposed liquidity coverage ratio.
• Impact: Credit positive for banks, as it enhances liquidity management.

Latvia

• Event: High-profile conduct incidents.
• Impact: Credit negative due to reputational and operational risks.

Sub-sovereign Highlights

Russian Regions

• Event: Debt burden declined in 2017.
• Impact: Credit positive as increased revenue offset expenses.

Key Risks and Considerations

• General Mills: High leverage post-acquisition, integration risks, and reliance on legacy portfolio performance.
• Albertsons: High leverage, integration challenges, and margin pressures from competitive pricing.
• DIA: Intense competition in Spain, potential margin compression from price wars.
• BAE Systems: Execution risks in order backlog, R&D costs, and possible impact from the UK defense review.
• ALROSA: Potential for liquidity to be used in dividends rather than deleveraging.

Summary of Credit Ratings and Outlooks

Additional Notes

• The document highlights the importance of leverage ratios, EBITDA growth, and cash flow generation in assessing credit risk.
• It emphasizes that while some transactions are credit positive, they also come with risks that need to be carefully managed.
• The analysis includes both short-term and long-term financial implications for the entities involved.