2024-03-12-世界银行-波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那的就业诊断_煤炭转型的影响（英）_71页_1mb

The report "Implications of Coal Transition in Bosnia and Herzegovina" analyzes the economic and social impacts of transitioning away from coal mining and power generation. Key findings include:

• BiH relies heavily on coal for electricity (over 60% of production) and energy, with high dependence (among the highest globally). This transition risks 17,000 jobs directly and indirectly, including those in the coal value chain.

• The labor market faces severe challenges: high unemployment (around 16%), skills mismatch, and a preference for public sector jobs, which are fewer but better paid. Unemployment masks informal employment and migration, limiting job creation in low-productivity sectors.

• Coal sector workers are mostly male, rural, and in high-skilled or low-skilled roles, often in public sector jobs with high wages and benefits. A just transition requires policies to retrain and reskill them for alternative employment.

• Local labor markets in coal-dependent areas (e.g., Gacko, Banovic´i, Ugljevik) are vulnerable to job losses, exacerbating skills mismatches and increasing unemployment rates significantly.

• Policy recommendations include: upstream planning, diagnostics to assess job profiles and transition pathways, active labor market programs (e.g., training, wage subsidies), improved social protection, and geographically targeted investments to diversify local economies. Lessons from past coal transitions emphasize the need for inclusive, coordinated policies to mitigate negative impacts.