世界银行-波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那的就业诊断：煤炭转型的影响（英）-2024-71页_1mb

Analysis Summary: Implications of Coal Transition in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Background and Importance

• Coal accounts for 60% of Bosnia and Herzegovina's (BiH) electricity production and is crucial for regional economies, with high dependency in municipalities like Gacko and Ugljevik.
• Transition to carbon neutrality risks significant job losses, particularly affecting coal sector workers and indirectly impacting non-coal sectors due to local economic reliance.
• BiH faces labor market distortions, including high public sector employment, low productivity in private sectors, and skills mismatch, which could exacerbate the challenges of coal exit.

Labor Market Context and Challenges

• Unemployment remains high (16% in 2019), with low labor force participation and excessive reliance on the public sector, masking informal employment and outmigration.
• Coal sector employment involves both low-skilled (50%) and high-skilled (25%) roles, with high wages (17% above national average) and strong union influence, making transitions difficult.
• Key issues include skills mismatch between workers and employers, demographic pressures (aging population, outmigration), and underutilization of human capital, hindering adaptation to green transition.

Employment Impacts of Coal Transition

• Direct coal employment represents about 17,000 jobs at risk, with high concentrations in mining areas, leading to severe local unemployment spikes (e.g., 50% in Banovic´i).
• Indirect effects include job losses in coal value chain suppliers, potentially affecting tens of thousands more, with vulnerabilities highest in coal-dependent municipalities.
• Labor market constraints limit absorption of displaced workers, as high demand for low-skilled jobs in retail and services does not align with coal workers' skill sets.

Policy Recommendations

• Strengthen active labor market programs (ALMPs) for reskilling, wage subsidies, and mobility support, targeting vulnerable groups.
• Align education and training with labor market needs, emphasizing STEM, entrepreneurship, and climate-related skills.
• Implement targeted social assistance and just transition support packages for affected workers, including regional investments in renewable energy and infrastructure.
• Coordinate government efforts at national, entity, and local levels to ensure policy coherence and leverage international finance for sustainable development.