2024-02-28-世界银行-波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那国家经济备忘录_2024年1月（英）_142页_6mb

Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Economic Memorandum Summary

Core Observations

• Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) made progress post-Dayton Agreement, achieving EU candidate status, but faces persistent political fragmentation hindering reforms.
• Growth slowed since 2000: Real GDP growth stagnated, leading to cumulative lag that regional peers overcame due to better reforms.
• Convergence toward EU living standards stalled; BiH saw minimal improvement in real per capita consumption despite economic development efforts.
• Key growth challenges:
  • Aging population reducing workforce size
  • Outmigration depressing output growth by nearly 1 p.p. annually
  • Low business density and high informal economy inhibiting job creation potential
  • High public sector employment (approx. 40% of formal jobs) crowding out private activity and creating skilled labor shortages elsewhere

Policy Imperatives

• Unlocking Growth Potential:

  • Just Energy Transition: Coal mines/twe plants face closure due to CBAM exposure and inefficiency; involves massive social costs and requires meticulous planning.
  • Reforming SOEs: Privatizing/Restructuring state enterprises is essential for efficiency; needed particularly for medium-sized entities currently owned by public sector.
  • Boosting Productivity: Facilitating entry for more competitive private firms through simplified registration, quality controls, and strong export incentives will be vital.

• Fiscal and Macroeconomic Governance:

  • Establish independent Fiscal Council to enhance public debt sustainability management and improve macroeconomic modeling capabilities.
  • Strengthening coordination between BiH institutions, entities, and cantons representing unique legal environment.

• Labor Market Deep Dives:

  • Unlocking Female Labor Force Potential: Women represent half of inactive working age population; targeted flexible work arrangements, parental leave policies, education support needed to boost participation.
  • Skills Training Uplift: Pairing formal education with vocational training, work-based learning, and corporate mentorship pathways must address industrial skill gaps.

Forward-Looking Challenges

• EU CBAM Exposure: Carbon border adjustment mechanism risks rendering coal-based exports uneconomical unless swift transition to renewables occurs; needs coupled with ETS introduction for domestic decarbonization.

• Fiscal Sustainability: While moderately sustainable debt trajectory exists under transformation plans, timely implementation of efficiency gains captures crucial fiscal headroom for needed investments.

This summary identifies BiH's key economic challenges and the imperative to accelerate deep structural reforms across fiscal, energy, and private sector domains to achieve convergence with advanced European economies.