20230602-财通证券-旅游及景区行业投资策略周报_本周海南客流环比下降6.11_海南客流维持高景气_大兴机场国际客流创新高_11页_759kb

Report Summary: Tourism and Scenic Industry Investment Strategy Week (20230602)

Key Findings

• Hainan Passenger Traffic: During week 21 (May 22-28, 2023), Hainan Airport inbound passengers were 3,565,000, showing a 611% week-on-week decline but 1,102.7% above 2019 levels and 764.6% of previous week's level. Key cities like Shanghai and Beijing contributed significant flows, with Shanghai flights up 146.87% YoY.

• Border Airport Traffic: In April 2023, Beijing Capital Airport had 47.64 million passengers (international + Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan), a +274.084% YoY increase, with international traffic at 36.42 million (+570.742% YoY). Guangzhou Baiyun Airport saw 57.83 million passengers (+100.657% YoY), largely due to policy adjustments and航班恢复.

• Industry News:

  • Hong Kong Airport handled 310,000 passengers in April (+~24x YoY), indicating gradual recovery to pre-pandemic levels.
  • Luxury goods prices rose sharply due to inflation, but demand remained strong.
  • Beijing Daxing Airport recorded 101,000 passengers in April, a 2,018% month-on-month increase, setting a new record.
  • Hainan advancing Zhanhai High-Speed Railway project for 2023 launch, with an investment of over 50 billion yuan.

• Investment Recommendations:

  • China Duty-Free (601888) recommended "Buy" with positive outlook from免税业态 recovery, new store openings, and international traffic normalization. Projected profits increasing significantly by 2023-2025.
  • Hai Auto Group (603069) recommended "Buy" based on strong performance in duty-free retail, with expected profit growth driven by high revenue and improved margins.

• Risk Factors:

  • Subpar duty-free sales or slower international traffic recovery could impact performance.
  • Increased competition in Hainan's retail market may affect profitability.