20230604-国元证券-宏观研究报告_关于宏大叙事的周期_12页_1mb

Macroeconomic Cycle and Investment Analysis Summary

Despite strong long-term trends in areas like zero interest rates, aging populations, and renewable energy, asset prices do not advance steadily due to limitations in liquidity and investor stability. Key factors include insufficient funds to price in distant future prospects and a preference for near-term, certifiable returns, which favors short-term assets.

The analysis shows that liquidity constraints and cyclical shifts drive asset adjustments. In periods of "asset shortage," funds seek out unverifiable long-term assets, such as AI-related stocks and China-specific equities, leading to high valuations and potential rebounds. Current indicators suggest this cycle persists, with recommendations to focus on holding long-term bonds, extending durations, and capitalizing on recovery in AI and China-specific growth stocks.

Risk factors include unexpected policy changes or external shocks, leading to valuation corrections.