2025-06-12-Jefferies-TAG房地产公司（TGE）_格但斯克CMD的反馈_9页_365kb

Summary: TAG Immobilien Equity Research on Polish Real Estate (June 12, 2025)

Executive Summary:
This equity research report analyzes TAG Immobilien's operations in the Polish real estate market, highlighting opportunities driven by pent-up demand, improving creditworthiness, and government housing deficits. The "Buy" rating reflects a positive outlook supported by price recovery expectations and growth targets, but is tempered by risks such as interest rate hikes and regulatory changes.

Poland's Housing Market:

• Poland ranks third in Europe for housing development, with over 50% of new completions occurring within the country. Annual completions reached up to 235,000 units by 2022, with Warsaw being a dominant market comparable to entire neighboring countries.
• A significant shortage of 550,000 units exists in the six largest cities, exacerbated by factors like high refugee numbers (approximately 1.9 million applicants).
• Housing stock quality is low, with 14.4% units built pre-war and 56.5% as prefabricated panels, leading to a 34% overcrowding rate.

Demand and Purchaser Behavior:

• Strong rental demand persists, with average rents in new stock (built post-2010) rising 24-41% over three years.
• Creditworthiness is improving despite past price increases, with mortgage rates projected to fall from 9% to 5% by 2028, bolstering affordability.
• About 52% of TAG's B-T-R customers are under 30, and 32% are Ukrainians.

B-T-S and B-T-R Business:

• B-T-S market: Prices expected to stabilize in 2025 but pick up significantly in 2026 due to accumulated demand. Construction costs have stabilized at c. €1,400/sqm.
• B-T-R business: TAG operates in Poland with 3,350 units in management (5th largest operator) and anticipates 10,000 units by 2028. Landbank payment is complete, with significant presence in Warsaw, Wroclaw, and Gdansk. Between 55% and €150m/year construction capex, and 80% of contracts include rent increases tied to inflation.

Valuation and Risks:

• Target price of €16.50 (up from €14.93), based on DCF, DDM, and Adjusted NAV models, giving a blended average.
• Risks include higher-than-expected inflation (leading to interest rate increases), regulatory shifts, and macroeconomic slowdowns impacting lending or occupancy rates. A "Hold" recommendation alternative exists if these risks materialize, though the core view supports growth.
• Overall market growth in Poland provides a backdrop for TAG's expansion and resilience in the face of global economic headwinds.