2025-05-22-Jefferies-西班牙经济_来自中央银行的深刻见解_8页_365kb

Spain Banks Equity Research Summary

Key Economic Highlights

• GDP Growth: Spain's GDP grew by 3.2% in FY24, higher than the Central Bank forecast and outpacing EU growth of 0.8%. Service exports and consumption were key drivers.
• Population Growth: Population increased 1% in 2025, a development not seen in the EU. Foreign-born residents make up 19.1% of the total population, and immigrants account for ~75% of new jobs since 2019.
• Productivity: Spain's total factor productivity (TFP) growth was 0.8% p.a. from 2020-24, improving slightly relative to the EU average, though still below it compared to Germany and France.

Residential Housing Challenges

• Housing demand significantly outstrips supply. The housing shortage is estimated at ~450,000 homes, concentrated in major provinces/regions.
• House starts in 2024 fell short of household formation needs. House price increases (~22% since 2015) outpacing wage growth (~11% for younger workers), worsening affordability.
• Developer loan growth slowed in FY24 despite higher housing starts, suggesting reliance on alternative funding sources.

Outlook

• The economy faces challenges including fiscal constraints, reduced job market growth potential, and continued downward pressure on the housing market.