2025-05-15-Jefferies-TAG房地产公司（TAG）_2025年第一季度业绩符合预期；波兰销售疲软_7页_104kb

报告摘要

TAG Immobilien Q1-25 Analysis Summary

Financial Results

First Quarter FY-25 results align with full-year guidance: Funds From Operations (FFO) I increased by 0.7% year-over-year to €44.9 million, or €0.26 per share, while FFO II decreased by 22% YoY to €50.1 million due to lower handovers and sales in Poland.
Rental income rose 0.7% YoY, with German LFL rental growth stabilizing at +2.5%, and Poland's growth normalizing to +3.0%.
Adjusted net income from Poland fell 75% YoY to €5 million.
Key metrics: Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratio improved to 45.6%, close to the target; Net debt/EBITDA ratio increased to 10.3x.

Forward Guidance

Confirms 2025 targets: FFO I between €172m and €176m, FFO II between €233m and €243m.
Expect slight value growth in Germany.
Poland's sales segment is projected for an adjusted net income of €61m to €67m.

Portfolio and Market Position

Primary focus on residential real estate in Germany (95% of portfolio value) and Poland (5%).
Germany: 85,000 residential units, with Berlin and Leipzig as key markets.
Poland: Portfolio expanded to 3,350 units by end-March 2025, vacancy rate at 6.3%.
Sales activities include unit disposals (53 units sold in Q1) yielding average gross yields.

Risks and Valuation

Rating: Buy, with a price target of €16.50.
Key risks: Higher inflation impacting interest rates, yield expansion, credit downgrade, and regulatory changes in Germany.
Valuation methodologies include DCF, DDM, and Adjusted NAV, estimating market cap at €2.4 billion.

Conclusion

TAG Immobilien maintains stability in core operations, with Poland showing signs of normalization, but challenges include economic sensitivities. The Buy rating suggests potential for total return.

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