2025-05-20-Jefferies-临时护士人员配置需求持续下降（周环比-3.0_）；费率上升（周环比+0.2_）_9页_365kb

Equity Research: USA Healthcare Services - Five Key Insights (May 20, 2025)

This report details recent data points and market analysis for the healthcare staffing sector.

1. Temporary Travel Nurse Market Dynamics

• Demand Decline: The Aya Healthcare Travel RN Demand Index dropped a significant -3.0% week-over-week (w/w), marking the lowest level since mid-January 2024. This represents a cumulative decline of 16.1% year-to-date (YTD), challenging earlier positive trends and reversing 0.8% w/w progress from the previous week.
• Slowing Rate Growth: Median weekly bill rates increased modestly +0.2% w/w to $2,363/wk/EUR ($2,368/wk). While the increase is small, analysts caution interpreting the recent volatility as a definitive trend, noting specific data anomalies previously from Fastaff and explained generally.
• Job Availability Decline: Aya Healthcare reported a simultaneous -1.2% w/w decline in available nursing jobs (5/13-5/20).

2. Comparative Bill Rate Data & Analysis

• Consistency Among Data Sources: Bill rates appeared relatively stable when comparing data from different sources (Fastaff, Ingenovis, Vivian) despite notable volatility mostly explained by Fastaff-specific "postings data noise."
• Data Limitations: Fastaff's recent median rate increase was attributed to a temporary spike in posted volume, not necessarily reflecting industry-wide shift. Ingenovis (+0.1% vs. -0.4%) and Vivian (+0.8% vs. +2.1%) data provided contrasting but relatively consistent daily medians respectively.

3. Valuation & Specific Company Analysis

• AMN Healthcare Services (Buy/Hold?): Valuation appears focused on E/EBITDA-to-growth ratios, underlying concerns about patient volumes and margins are noted. Price target recently lowered sequentially after the analyst initiation.
• Cross Country Healthcare (CCRN): Valued at ~14.1x EBITDA with core N&A volumes expected to decline sequentially (est.
  -0.4% -0.0% Q/Q), risks include declining utilization and tech implementation disruption.

4. Analyst Certifications

• Brian Tanquilut & Jack Slevin (Equity Analysts) certify their views are solely personal and unrelated to compensation tied to specific recommendations.
• Meghan Holtz (Equity Associate) similarly certifies her views.
• Analyst compensation is tied to Jefferies' overall performance, including investment banking income, distinct from security recommendations.

5. Analyst Retrospective & Disclosure

• · AMN moved from "Buy" ($185) to "HOLD" ($70) in June 2022, reporting an expected 15% return pre-adjustment.
• · CCRN ratings shifted from "BUY" highs ($40-$45) to "HOLD" lows ($7-$18) throughout 2022-2025, reflecting market reality checks.

This report summarizes key findings, analyst commentary, and valuation nuances pertinent to the temporary healthcare staffing sector, incorporating associated notes on method and potential conflicts of interest.