2025-05-15-Jefferies-临时护士人员配置需求再次下降（周环比下降2.4_）以及费率数据中的噪音_9页_365kb

Equity Research Summary: Healthcare Services (May 15, 2025)

Market Overview

• Nurse Staffing Demand: The Aya Healthcare Travel RN Demand Index decreased by 2.4% W/W from the prior week, reversing gains from a previous positive trend and declining 13.5% over the past four weeks.
• Bill Rates: Fastaff median bill rates fell 13.6% W/W to $2,363/wk, but the report flags this as "noise" due to a surge in postings (nearly quadruple from the prior week), which may not reflect true market trends. Other data sources (Ingenovis, Vivian) show stability, with rates unchanged or slightly positive weekly growth.
• Jobs Available: Aya reported a +1.6% W/W increase in travel RN job openings to 27,630 as of May 13, contrasting with the demand index decline.
• Seasonal Trends: Demand stabilized late December to early February but recently dropped, with management commentary indicating persistent dislocations in volume and demand.

Company Coverage

• AMN Healthcare Services (AMN):
  • Equity rating: Hold.
  • Price target: $26.
  • Key risks: Soft hospital patient volumes, margin compression.
  • Bill rate analysis: Sequential volumes down in the -MSD% range, assuming stable rates.
  • Price target history: Previously held at $26 (02/24/2025) and below.
• Cross Country Healthcare (CCRN):
  • Equity rating: Hold.
  • Price target: $13 less recently on 11/12/2024.
  • Risks: Decline in hospital utilization, health systems curtailing contingent labor, IT implementation disruption.

Valuation and Risks

• Overall Market: Reports use EV/EBITDA multiples aligned with healthcare provider averages. For AMN, EV/EBITDA-based PT is in line with group norms, while Cross Country uses ~13.6x multiple.
• Risks: Soft hospital patient volumes, margin compression, and IT disruptions are key concerns for both companies. Analysts note discrepancies in data sources, emphasizing potential volatility and the need to monitor trends from multiple indicators.

Analyst Insights

• Data Caveats: Weekly fluctuations in demand and rates should be viewed with caution due to potential anomalies, e.g., Fastaff data driven by internal posting changes. Recommendations rely on historical context and broader data aggregation.
• Trend Assessment: Management continues to highlight rate stability, but new data sources suggest meaningful pullbacks. AMN's 2Q guidance implies sequential volume declines, offset by flat rates, while total return expectations range from Hold to Underperform.