20180412-USDA-USDA_Feed_Outlook_2018.04.12_24页_1mb

Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report from the Economic Research Service (ERS) provides an overview of the U.S. and global outlook for coarse grains, including corn, barley, sorghum, and oats, for the marketing year 2017/18 and projections for 2018/19. It highlights changes in production, use, stocks, and prices, with a focus on the impact of weather conditions and market dynamics.

Main Views

• Corn Disappearance and Stocks:

  • Corn use for the 2017/18 marketing year is forecast at 5,500 million bushels, down 55 million from the previous month's projection.
  • Lower feed and residual use is attributed to higher-than-expected March 1 stocks, which are projected at 2,182 million bushels.
  • The corn stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 14.8, down from 14.4 last month.
  • The midpoint price for corn received by producers is unchanged at $3.35 per bushel, with a projected range of $3.20 to $3.50.

• International Corn Outlook:

  • Global corn production for 2017/18 is down 7.0 million tons, primarily due to reduced output in Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay.
  • Argentina's corn production is cut by 3.7 million tons to 39.8 million, the lowest since 2004-05, due to drought and high temperatures.
  • Brazil's corn production is down 2.5 million tons, with a corresponding decline in local marketing year exports.
  • South America's reduced corn production boosts U.S. price competitiveness and is expected to support stronger export sales in the second half of the marketing year.
  • U.S. corn exports for 2017/18 are projected at 2,225 million bushels, unchanged from the previous month.

• Sorghum Outlook:

  • Sorghum use for the 2017/18 marketing year is projected at 65 million bushels, up slightly from the previous month.
  • Producers are expected to plant 5.932 million acres of sorghum in 2018/19, a 5 percent increase.
  • The projected sorghum price range is $3.05 to $3.35 per bushel, with a midpoint of $3.20.

• Barley Outlook:

  • Barley use is projected down 5 million bushels this month.
  • Barley acreage for 2018/19 is expected to be the lowest on record at 2.286 million acres.
  • The projected barley price range is $2.30 to $2.70 per bushel, with a midpoint of $4.50.

• Oats Outlook:

  • Oats use is projected at 165 million bushels, up slightly from 2016/17.
  • Oats acreage for 2018/19 is expected to rise by 5 percent to 2.716 million acres.
  • The projected price range for oats is $2.50 to $2.60 per bushel, with a midpoint of $2.55.

• Hay Outlook:

  • U.S. hay producers intend to harvest 53.726 million acres in 2018, a slight increase from 2017.
  • Weather conditions and relative economics are expected to influence the final harvested area.

Key Information

• Domestic Corn Use:

  • Feed and residual use is projected at 38.2 million tons for the second quarter of 2017/18, down from 38.9 million in the previous year.
  • FSI use is projected at 7,040 million bushels, down 5 million from the previous month.

• Domestic Sorghum Use:

  • Feed and residual use is projected at 65 million bushels, up 5 million from the previous month.
  • Ethanol use is unchanged, but glucose and dextrose use is down 10 million bushels, while starch use is up 5 million.

• Domestic Barley Use:

  • Feed and residual use is projected at 65 million bushels, up 5 million from the previous month.
  • Total disappearance is projected at 65 million bushels, with carryout expected to be the lowest since 2011/12.

• Domestic Oats Use:

  • Feed and residual use is projected at 165 million bushels, up slightly from 2016/17.
  • Ending stocks are projected at 165 million bushels, up 2 million from the previous month.

• International Corn Production:

  • World corn production for 2017/18 is forecast at 1,036.1 million tons, down 5.7 million tons from the previous month.
  • Foreign corn production is down 5.7 million tons, with Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay being the main contributors to the decline.

• International Corn Exports:

  • Global corn exports for the 2017/18 trade year are projected at 150.3 million tons, a record high.
  • Argentina's corn exports are revised down 1.0 million tons due to declining supplies.
  • Brazil's corn exports are unchanged at 31.0 million tons, but are expected to increase after the second-crop harvest.

• International Barley Trade:

  • Global barley trade for the 2017/18 trade year is projected up 0.7 million tons to 27.8 million.
  • Argentina and Russia are expected to increase exports to the Middle East and Turkey.

• International Sorghum Trade:

  • Sorghum trade is projected fractionally lower, with a small reduction in Argentina exports and a corresponding decline in Chilean imports.

• International Oats Trade:

  • Oats imports are projected down 3 million bushels for 2017/18, with some countries like Mexico and South Africa also showing reductions.

• Key Influences:

  • Drought and heat in South America significantly impacted corn production and use.
  • Relative prices have influenced producers to switch crops, such as spring wheat and cotton.
  • Trade dynamics and macroeconomic conditions have affected global grain trade and use.