20171221-法国巴黎银行-Morning_Meeting_Notes_9页_705kb

报告摘要

EM STRATEGY | TURKEY DESKNOTE Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of Turkey's inflation outlook for the coming months and the broader implications for the economy and financial markets. It highlights that while headline inflation is expected to decline due to base effects and certain policy decisions, the underlying inflation trend and inflation expectations remain a concern.

Main Points

Headline Inflation Outlook:
- Annual CPI inflation is expected to decrease from high levels in November 2017, with forecasts of:
  - 12% in December 2017
  - 11% in January 2018
  - 10% in April 2018
- The decline is attributed to:
  - A base effect from the previous year's tax hike on tobacco, which reduced inflation by 0.55pp
  - A reduction in food inflation, which is expected to bring down headline inflation by 1-1.3pp
  - A lower currency depreciation in 2017 compared to 2016, with the basket TRY increasing by 15% (vs. 25% in 2016), leading to a 1.7pp reduction in headline inflation
Underlying Inflation Trends:
- Despite the expected decline in headline inflation, the underlying inflation trend is not expected to improve significantly.
- Inflation expectations remain high, with the December Survey of Expectations showing an 8.5% annual CPI inflation forecast, up by 1.1pp from previous levels.
- Breakeven inflation for the 10y CPI-linker bond is at 9.2%, the highest since the bonds were introduced.
- The inflation diffusion index is still high, indicating inflation momentum remains strong.
Key Risks and Considerations:
- Inflation expectations and diffusion index are more important than headline inflation in determining the true nature of the inflation outlook.
- Global risk sentiment continues to influence the currency and inflation dynamics.
- Economic slowdown and tight monetary policy could lead to a more prudent disinflation in the second half of 2018.

Key Financial Market Indicators

Foreign Exchange Market:
- USDTRY spot rate: 3,8247
- EURTRY spot rate: 4,5454
- Basket TRY (50% USDTRY + 50% EURTRY): 4,1859
- Forward rates and swap rates show a slight decline in the short-term, with 1m USDTRY swap rate at 11,70 and 1m EURTRY swap rate at 12,45
Bond Market:
- CBRT's Average Repo Funding Rate is highlighted as an important indicator.
- Government Bonds Yield Curve and CPI Linkers show a mix of price and yield movements:
  - 2Y Local Government Bonds: Price at 13,40, yield at 3,49%
  - 5Y Local Government Bonds: Price at 12,93, yield at 5,02%
  - 10Y Local Government Bonds: Price at 12,14, yield at 5,83%
  - CPI Linkers (e.g., 2Y, 5Y, 10Y) show yields ranging from 9.16% to 10,79%
Volatility and Interest Rates:
- ATM vols for USDTRY show a 11.43% level with a -0.18% daily change.
- XCCY Rate Curve and Government Bonds Yield Curve are visualized to provide further context on market expectations.

Legal and Regulatory Disclaimer

This document is a marketing communication and not independent research.
It is not investment research and not intended for retail investors.
BNP Paribas may have conflicts of interest due to its involvement in transactions, advisory roles, or market-making activities.
No liability is accepted for any loss arising from the use of this document.
The information is subject to change and not guaranteed to be accurate or complete.
Performance data is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of future results.
Options and ETFs discussed are complex instruments and may involve high risk.
US and UK disclosures highlight the legal restrictions and regulatory considerations for the use of the document.

Summary of Key Variables

Headline Inflation Forecast: 12% (Dec 2017), 11% (Jan 2018), 10% (April 2018)
Base Effect: 0.55pp reduction due to no tobacco tax hike
Food Inflation Impact: 1-1.3pp reduction expected
Currency Depreciation Impact: 1.7pp reduction due to lower depreciation
Inflation Expectations: 8.5% (Dec 2017), up by 1.1pp
Inflation Diffusion Index: Still high, indicating continued inflation momentum
CBRT's Pass-Through Estimate: 17%
Legal Disclaimer: This is not investment research, does not constitute a prospectus, and is subject to legal and regulatory limitations.