2025-05-20-Jefferies-高士（COA）_预期不变；应对市场错位的成熟策略_7页_105kb

Coats Trading Update Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis and investment recommendation for Coats Group plc, highlighting its recent performance, market conditions, and strategic moves. The report is authored by Jefferies analysts and includes key financial metrics, valuation insights, and risk considerations.

Key Financial Performance

• OCC Revenue Growth: Coats reported $+4%$ organic revenue growth for the Jan–Apr period.
• Apparel and Footwear Growth: Both divisions saw $+5%$ organic revenue growth, outperforming their respective comparables.
• Performance Materials: Performance Materials revenue was flat, excluding the impact of the US Yarns disposal.
• Reported Revenue Growth: The reported revenue growth was $+2%$, with Apparel at $+3%$, Footwear at $+4%$, and PM at $-3%$.
• FX Impact: The growth in US$ against currencies like the Indian Rupee, Egyptian Pound, and Turkish Lira contributed to the reported figures.

Strategic Moves and Market Disruption

• US Yarns Disposal: Coats is selling its US Yarns business for net cash proceeds of US$16m, equivalent to 5.3x EV/EBITA.
• Strategic Cost Savings: The closure of the Toluca Americas Yarns plant is expected to provide $7m in cost savings, with an additional $6m benefit.
• Market Share Opportunities: The report suggests that Coats may capitalize on current market dislocation, similar to its strategy during the pandemic.
• Inorganic Opportunities: The company is building a pipeline of attractive acquisition targets, indicating potential for further growth through M&A.

Investment Recommendation

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: 130.00p (+65% from current price of 78.60p)
• Valuation Methodology: Based on a 2.06x EV/Sales and 11.9x EV/EBITA SOTP valuation using FY26F estimates.
• Consensus Guidance: The group expects EBITA margins in 1H to be consistent with the raised guidance range of 19%-21%, which is slightly above the current FY25F consensus of 18.5%.

Market and Macro Considerations

• Tariff Impact: The US Yarns sale is expected to mitigate the impact of high tariffs in key apparel and footwear exporting nations such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Indonesia.
• Pricing Pressure: Analysts note the potential for pricing pressure in the apparel and footwear supply chain due to tariffs.
• FX Headwinds: Reduced FX headwinds are expected in the second half of the year due to the current state of the US$.

Analysts and Certifications

• Analysts: David Farrell, Andy Douglas, Vanessa Jeffriess, and Richard Hill.
• Certification: All analysts certify that the views expressed in the report reflect their personal opinions and are not influenced by compensation.
• Non-US Analysts: Non-US analysts are not registered with FINRA and may not be subject to certain restrictions.

Risk Factors

• Pricing Pressure: From falling raw material costs and tariffs.
• Market Conditions: Subdued conditions in Performance Materials end markets.
• Currency Risk: Exchange rate fluctuations may impact the value of investments.
• Regulatory and Conflict of Interest: Jefferies may have conflicts of interest due to its business relationships with the company.

Disclosure and Legal Information

• Jefferies' Role: Jefferies may make a market in the securities of Coats Group plc.
• Ratings and Price Targets: The report includes a distribution of ratings over the past 12 months, with Buy ratings being the most common.
• Jurisdictional Restrictions: The report is subject to distribution and use restrictions in various jurisdictions, including the UK, Germany, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, India, Australia, and Dubai.
• Investment Suitability: The report is not tailored to individual investors and should be considered alongside other factors and professional advice.

Summary of Key Points

• Coats has delivered positive organic revenue growth despite market dislocation.
• The US Yarns disposal is expected to have a positive impact on margins and cash flow.
• The company is well-positioned to capitalize on current market disruptions and is exploring inorganic growth opportunities.
• The investment recommendation is "Buy" with a price target of 130.00p.
• Analysts highlight the potential for reduced FX headwinds and improved margins in the second half of the year.
• The report includes detailed risk disclosures and jurisdictional limitations.