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Pernod Ricard - US Operations Equity Research Summary

Flash Note & Rating

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: €120.00 (24% upside from €96.58)
• key financials: €96.58 prior close, €120 PT, 15.3x 2026 PE, market cap €25.6B.

US Market Overview

• Total alcohol market broadly stable; pressures are cyclical, not structural.
• Consumer confidence expected to drive return to normative long-term growth.
• Fundamentals supported by demographics, spirits/RTDs market share, and cocktail culture.
• Weakness attributed to post-COvid normalization and moderation, not disruptors like cannabis.

Turnaround Plan Progress

• Three key areas addressed: portfolio prioritization, execution excellence, and organizational focus.
• Progress includes brand building, portfolio refinement, and commercial capability reactivation.
• Volume stabilizing ahead of market (excluding RTDs).

Portfolio Strategy

• Six Power Brands: Drive scale with early performance signs (Jameson, Absolut, Glenlivet, Malibu, Kahlua, Skrewball).
• Four Explode Brands: Focus for future growth (Codigo, Del Maguey, Jeffersons, Redbreast).
• Prioritization: Acquired brands scale-up (e.g., Martell, Chivas); backend operations executed (e.g., Beefeater).

Execution and People

• New commercial divisions (RTDs and innovation brands); empowered team.
• Appointment of Chief Commercial Officer; revamped route-to-market engagement.

Early Signs of Recovery

• Volume improving, especially where authenticity connects brands to culture (Jameson, Absolut).
• Jameson: Volumes flat, driven by pricing, on-trade revival, cultural trends.
• Absolut: Best trends since 2008; flat share from Vanilla and RTD momentum.

Key Priorities for 2026

• Sustained volume gains with value/mix focus.
• Improved commercial integration of acquired brands.
• Embedding new RTM for portfolio clarity.
• Driving revenue growth with commercial levers.

Valuation & Risks

• DCF-based buy-side PT; risks include macroeconomic issues, regulations, FX.
• Current PE 15.3x vs staples, targeting growth in constrained environment.

Analysis Team

• Edward Mundy, Andrei Andon-Ionita.
• Disclaimer: Analysts not registered with FINRA in the UK or internationally, no compensation ties to recommendations.