2025-05-20-Jefferies-唯品会（VIPS）_速览唯品会2025年第一季度业绩_7页_105kb

VIPS 1Q25 Results Summary

Core Content

VIPS released its 1Q25 financial results, showing revenue performance that matched both the market consensus and the analysts' estimates. The company also provided revenue guidance for 2Q25, with the mid-point aligned with expectations.

Key Financial Highlights

• Total Revenue: RMB26.3bn, a 5% YoY decline, inline with consensus and estimates.
• GMV: RMB52.4bn, largely flat YoY, slightly better than the estimated 0.9% decline.
• Active Buyers: 41.3 million, down 4.2% YoY (vs. estimate of 42 million).
• Orders: 167.2 million, down 6.3% YoY (vs. estimate of 168.8 million).
• Gross Profit: RMB6.1bn, exceeding the estimate of RMB6bn.
• GPM: 23.2%, above the consensus and estimate of 23%.
• Non-GAAP Operating Profit: RMB2.6bn, inline with consensus and ahead of the estimate.
• Non-GAAP OP Margin: 10%, surpassing the estimate of 9.5%.
• Non-GAAP Net Income: RMB2.3bn, 3% above consensus and estimate.
• Non-GAAP Net Margin: 8.8%, above the consensus and estimate of 8.5%.

Revenue Guidance for 2Q25

• Revenue guidance range: RMB25.5bn to RMB26.9bn.
• Mid-point of the guidance is inline with consensus and estimates.
• Expected YoY decline in revenue is between 5% and 0%.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Revenue Performance

• 1Q25 revenue declined by 5% YoY to RMB26.3bn, matching both consensus and estimates.
• The company's revenue guidance for 2Q25 is in line with expectations, indicating a potential continued decline or stabilization.

2. GMV Trends

• GMV remained largely flat YoY at RMB52.4bn, outperforming the estimated 0.9% decline.
• The company's GMV performance is a positive sign, especially given the challenging macroeconomic environment.

3. Share Buyback Program

• VIPS repurchased US$16.9m of its ADS in 1Q25.
• The company has fully utilized its US$1bn share repurchase program initiated in March 2023.
• It continues to repurchase under the current US$1bn program, which is valid for 24 months through February 2027.

4. Earnings Call Focus

• The company will discuss several key topics during its earnings call, including:
  • Consumer sentiment and GMV trends.
  • Competitive landscape in online shopping.
  • GMV performance in apparel and standardized categories.
  • The gap between GMV and revenue growth.
  • GMV growth from SVIP customers.
  • Customer growth trends.
  • Trends in gross margin and operating expenses.
  • User acquisition strategies.
  • Use of cash.
  • Updates on the share repurchase program.

5. Investment Recommendation

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: USD18.30, representing a 18% increase from the prior trading day's closing price of USD15.47.
• Valuation Methodology: Based on DCF analysis, factoring in business developments.
• Risks:
  • Macroeconomic headwinds affecting online shopping growth.
  • Aggressive sales and marketing spending due to competition.
  • User growth potentially lagging behind market expectations.

Conference Call Details

• Date and Time: 20 May 2025 at 7:30pm HKT (7:30am EST).
• Registration Link: https://register-conf.media-server.com/register/Blf52e8ab26da948e69cba40bd7b13d7a1

Analyst Disclosures

• Analysts: Thomas Chong and Zoey Zong from Jefferies Hong Kong Limited.
• Registration Status: Neither analyst is registered with FINRA.
• Conflict of Interest: Jefferies may have conflicts of interest due to its business relationship with companies covered in the report.
• Disclaimer: The report is not tailored to individual investors and is not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Additional Information

• The report includes a table of rating and price target history for VIPS, showing a strong Buy rating with a high percentage of analysts recommending it.
• Jefferies provides research independently and may seek investment banking services from the companies it covers, which could affect the objectivity of the report.
• The report is subject to various legal and regulatory disclosures, depending on the jurisdiction of the recipient.

Summary of Key Metrics

Conclusion

VIPS delivered 1Q25 results that were largely in line with expectations, with revenue and GMV showing resilience despite a challenging market environment. The company is maintaining its share buyback program and is expected to provide further insights into its performance and strategy during the upcoming earnings call. The Buy rating and price target suggest positive long-term potential, although macroeconomic and competitive risks remain a concern.