20221208-华泰金融控股-Domestic_macro_weekly__4_December_17页_2mb

报告摘要

Domestic Macro Weekly Summary: 4 December 2022

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the Chinese domestic macroeconomic situation, focusing on economic activity, inflation, financial markets, and policy changes during the week of 28 November to 4 December 2022. It also outlines key data releases and events for the upcoming week, along with relevant disclaimers and regulatory information.

Main Economic Indicators

Travel and Consumption

Travel indicators continued to decline, below the low point in 1H22.
Industrial output growth slowed.
Commodity property transactions were sluggish.
Land transactions fell significantly.
Congestion index in 100 cities and subway passenger flow in 18 cities declined sharply.
Movie box office revenue dropped by 76.4% yoy.
Domestic flights declined, while international flights saw a slight increase.
Car retail sales edged up but declined yoy.
Road freight traffic index decreased by 12.5% wow and 41.4% yoy.

Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI

Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI continued their downward trend in November.
Manufacturing PMI fell 1.2pp mom to 48.0%.
Non-manufacturing PMI dropped 2.0pp mom to 46.7%.

Real Estate and Infrastructure

Property transaction volume in 30 major cities fell yoy.
Tier-1 and tier-2 cities saw a significant drop in property transaction volume.
Land transaction volume declined wow and turned negative yoy.
Cement plant operating rate decreased by 5.3pp wow.
Construction steel turnover fell by 8.4% wow.
Crude steel growth increased yoy but remained unchanged wow.
Rebar inventory decreased yoy.
Copper inventory increased wow.

Inflation and Prices

International oil prices rose, with Brent oil climbing 2.3% to $85.6/barrel.
Domestic raw material prices showed divergence.
Pork prices fell 3.2% wow.
Corn prices declined wow.
Agricultural product prices remained unchanged wow.
Thermal coal and cement prices fell mom.
Copper prices increased wow.
Thermal coal and cement prices fell mom.
Baltic Dry Index remained unchanged wow.
China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) and Domestic Freight Index (CDFI) declined wow.
Second-hand housing listing prices edged down wow.

Financial Market and Cost of Capital

Interbank interest rates declined, with R007/DR007 down by 29.4/11.3bp wow.
1Y/10Y bond yields increased by 7/3bp to 2.16/2.87%.
Property bond issuance increased wow.
Credit bond net issuance increased this week.
RMB appreciated against the USD by 1.8% wow to 7.04, but edged down against a basket of currencies.
RMB trading volume decreased wow.
Wenzhou private lending interest rate decreased wow.
DR007 and R007 both decreased wow.
1Y and 3Y credit spreads increased wow.
Property bond spread edged down wow.

Policy and Regulatory Updates

Anti-pandemic measures were optimized in Guangzhou, Beijing, and Chongqing.
CSRC relaxed equity financing restrictions for property developers, signaling increased financial support for the property sector.
PBOC injected a net RMB -1523bn in November through monetary policy instruments.
Bond issuance decreased wow.
CSRC issued a document to support property equity financing, following the 16-point financial package.

Upcoming Data and Events

November trade data and CPI will be released this week.
November BOT is also expected to be released.
Liquidity withdrawal is expected next week, with the 7d reverse repo at 55bn RMB.
Important HK Regulatory Disclosures and Important US Regulatory Disclosures are included to clarify the legal and ethical standards of the report.

Risks and Outlook

Risks: Increasing risk of overseas recession and less effective economic policies than anticipated.
Expectations: Nominal export growth may continue to decline, with CPI expected to fall back to 1.6% and PPI likely to decelerate due to the high base of November 2021.

Summary of Key Views

Economic activity remains weak, with continued declines in travel, property, and industrial sectors.
Inflationary pressures are mixed, with oil prices rising and pork prices falling.
Financial markets show signs of easing, with RMB appreciation and bond yields increasing.
Policy support for the property sector has been enhanced, but the overall economic recovery remains uncertain.
Market expectations for growth have picked up slightly, though consumption and investment indicators remain subdued.