信用周报总结（20260706-20260712）
核心内容概述
本期信用债市场整体呈现收益率下行、信用利差收窄的趋势，同时一级市场信用债净供给环比上升，二级市场换手率下降。市场对信用债的需求有所支撑，但需警惕潜在的信用风险分化。
一级市场动态
- 普通信用债：本期合计发行2734亿元，净融资746亿元，环比上升。其中，产业债发行和净融资均上升至1869亿元和704亿元，而城投债发行上升至865亿元，但净融资下降至41亿元。
- 银行二永债：本期合计发行905亿元，净融资870亿元，环比大幅上升。二级资本债发行3只，到期1只，净融资615亿元；永续债发行3只，无到期，净融资255亿元。
二级市场表现
- 收益率：本期信用债收益率大多下行，其中7Y普信债和1-3Y二永债表现较好。具体来看，7Y AA+中票和城投债分别下行2.3BP；3/7Y AAA-二级资本债、永续债分别下行2.0/2.5BP和2.4/2.4BP。
- 信用利差：除10Y和部分1-5Y普信债走阔外，大部分信用利差收窄。7Y AA+中票和城投债分别收窄1.1BP；二永债全部收窄，3Y AAA-二级资本债和永续债分别收窄2.5BP和3.0BP。
- 换手率：普信债和银行二永债换手率均下降。
市场展望与策略建议
- 短期信用利差：预计短期内信用利差将维持低位震荡，但三季度市场扰动因素增多，需关注信用债内部潜在的分化。
- 央行政策影响：央行将债券市场波动纳入常态化观测，对长期收益率关注较多，态度中性偏谨慎。市场机构倾向于关注资金面做长债，但市场与央行博弈可能持续。
- 信用策略：建议聚焦3年及以内短久期品种，3-5年高等级品种做收益增强。同时，对潜在评级下调主体保持谨慎。7-8月仍有规模的3-4年封闭期摊余债基开放，可关注3年左右兼具票息和流动性的品种，如当前估值性价比较高的3Y券商普通债、TLAC债。
- ETF与成份券：科创债ETF规模开始企稳，第二批科创债纳入通用质押库，关注ETF和成份券的参与机会。
- 二永债策略：7月10日3/5Y AAA-二债信用利差滚动1年分位数分别为17%和49%，当前5Y二永债性价比或优于3Y，短期内“估值窄幅震荡、行情演绎较快”的特征可能延续，建议基于利率走势和二永估值比价择机把握波段机会。
风险提示
- 数据统计可能存在误差。
- 政策变化超预期可能对市场产生影响。
- 债市波动可能超出预期。
- 赎回压力可能增加。
- AAA级主体评级下调和取消案例增多，可能引发市场担忧。
- 众邦银行被接管事件可能加剧对弱资质发行人的担忧情绪。
附录：主要数据表
1. 信用债收益率与信用利差（截至2026年7月10日）
| 品种 |
当前值(%) |
2024年以来历史分位数 |
| 中票 |
1.51/1.55/1.59/1.65 |
4.9%/6.5%/5.4%/4.1% |
| 城投债 |
1.52/1.54/1.57/1.68 |
4.6%/4.7%/4.3%/9.7% |
| 非公开产业债 |
1.52/1.55/1.58/1.89 |
3.1%/3.3%/2.7%/1.1% |
| 非公开城投债 |
1.55/1.57/1.59/1.78 |
6.2%/5.9%/4.6%/8.9% |
| 可续期产业债 |
1.54/1.58/1.62/1.72 |
22.3%/18.3%/15.3%/0.0% |
| 可续期城投债 |
1.56/1.58/1.63/1.72 |
24.1%/16.4%/8.7%/0.0% |
| 普通商金债 |
1.47/1.51/1.54/1.66 |
28.2%/26.6%/15.1%/11.5% |
| 银行二级资本债 |
1.53/1.54/1.58/1.63 |
30.0%/27.7%/26.9%/13.4% |
| 银行永续债 |
1.54/1.56/1.60/1.69 |
30.1%/28.7%/26.0%/14.5% |
| 券商普通债 |
1.50/1.55/1.59/1.65 |
26.9%/29.8%/18.2%/0.0% |
| 证券公司次级债 |
1.50/1.53/1.56/1.72 |
21.4%/24.6%/23.1%/0.0% |
| 券商永续次级债 |
1.51/1.54/1.56/1.73 |
19.8%/21.4%/0.0%/0.0% |
| 保险公司资本补充债 |
1.53/1.57/1.72/1.97 |
0.0%/7.0%/6.5%/7.5% |
| 其他金融机构债 |
1.48/1.51/1.59/1.71 |
23.3%/18.6%/21.2%/0.3% |
2. 信用利差（截至2026年7月10日）
| 品种 |
当前值(BP) |
2024年以来历史分位数 |
| 中票 |
14.7/18.7/20.7/49.7 |
10.2%/4.7%/4.1%/22.6% |
| 城投债 |
15.2/18.1/20.3/31.7 |
6.2%/3.6%/21.0%/21.0% |
| 非公开产业债 |
15.7/18.7/21.7/52.9 |
6.7%/5.2%/0.1%/26.6% |
| 非公开城投债 |
18.6/20.2/22.4/42.1 |
2.2%/1.4%/11.8%/10.2% |
| 可续期产业债 |
17.9/21.3/25.4/35.0 |
7.9%/7.8%/0.0%/0.0% |
| 可续期城投债 |
19.4/21.7/26.6/32.2 |
4.4%/3.6%/0.0%/0.0% |
| 普通商金债 |
10.8/14.3/17.3/29.3 |
0.0%/0.0%/0.6%/0.0% |
| 银行二级资本债 |
16.6/17.4/21.4/26.4 |
35.7%/13.7%/3.0%/13.7% |
| 银行永续债 |
17.8/19.8/23.3/32.3 |
58.4%/1.5%/0.0%/0.0% |
| 券商普通债 |
13.6/18.6/22.6/35.0 |
75.3%/24.4%/0.0%/0.0% |
| 证券公司次级债 |
14.1/17.1/20.1/22.1 |
0.0%/0.0%/0.0%/0.0% |
| 券商永续次级债 |
15.1/18.1/22.1/24.1 |
61.8%/0.0%/0.0%/0.0% |
| 保险公司资本补充债 |
10.8/14.3/17.3/29.3 |
0.0%/0.0%/0.0%/0.0% |
| 其他金融机构债 |
11.7/14.7/22.7/77.7 |
1.1%/21.2%/10.0%/0.3% |
3. 等级利差（截至2026年7月10日）
| 品种 |
当前值(BP) |
2024年以来历史分位数 |
| 中票 |
4.0/6.0/35.0/17.0 |
10.2%/4.7%/4.1%/22.6% |
| 城投债 |
2.9/5.1/16.5/17.7 |
6.2%/3.6%/21.0%/21.0% |
| 非公开产业债 |
3.0/6.0/37.1/22.3 |
6.7%/5.2%/0.1%/26.6% |
| 非公开城投债 |
1.7/3.8/23.5/18.6 |
2.2%/1.4%/11.8%/10.2% |
| 可续期产业债 |
3.4/7.5/25.4/17.9 |
7.9%/7.8%/0.0%/0.0% |
| 可续期城投债 |
2.3/7.2/26.6/19.4 |
4.4%/3.6%/0.0%/0.0% |
| 普通商金债 |
3.5/6.5/18.5/5.0 |
0.0%/0.0%/0.6%/0.0% |
| 银行二级资本债 |
0.8/4.8/9.8/21.7 |
35.7%/13.7%/3.0%/13.7% |
| 银行永续债 |
2.0/5.5/14.5/3.0 |
58.4%/1.5%/0.0%/0.0% |
| 券商普通债 |
5.0/9.0/22.0/14.0 |
75.3%/24.4%/0.0%/0.0% |
| 证券公司次级债 |
14.1/17.1/20.1/22.1 |
0.0%/0.0%/0.0%/0.0% |
| 券商永续次级债 |
15.1/18.1/22.1/24.1 |
61.8%/0.0%/0.0%/0.0% |
| 保险公司资本补充债 |
10.8/14.3/17.3/29.3 |
0.0%/0.0%/0.0%/0.0% |
| 其他金融机构债 |
11.7/14.7/22.7/77.7 |
1.1%/21.2%/10.0%/0.3% |
4. 期限利差（截至2026年7月10日）
| 品种 |
当前值(BP) |
2024年以来历史分位数 |
| 中票 |
13.5/13.2/16.7/15.7 |
10.2%/4.7%/4.1%/22.6% |
| 城投债 |
13.7/13.9/16.4/17.9 |
6.2%/3.6%/21.0%/21.0% |
| 非公开产业债 |
17.7/15.2/18.4/18.1 |
6.7%/5.2%/0.1%/26.6% |
| 非公开城投债 |
20.3/18.7/17.4/18.2 |
2.2%/1.4%/11.8%/10.2% |
| 可续期产业债 |
17.9/15.0/19.7/15.3 |
7.9%/7.8%/0.0%/0.0% |
| 可续期城投债 |
15.8/18.2/17.4/18.2 |
4.4%/3.6%/0.0%/0.0% |
| 普通商金债 |
10.8/14.3/17.3/29.3 |
0.0%/0.0%/0.6%/0.0% |
| 银行二级资本债 |
16.6/17.4/21.4/26.4 |
35.7%/13.7%/3.0%/13.7% |
| 银行永续债 |
17.8/19.8/23.3/32.3 |
58.4%/1.5%/0.0%/0.0% |
| 券商普通债 |
13.6/18.6/22.6/35.0 |
75.3%/24.4%/0.0%/0.0% |
| 证券公司次级债 |
14.1/17.1/20.1/22.1 |
0.0%/0.0%/0.0%/0.0% |
| 券商永续次级债 |
15.1/18.1/22.1/24.1 |
61.8%/0.0%/0.0%/0.0% |
| 保险公司资本补充债 |
10.8/14.3/17.3/29.3 |
0.0%/0.0%/0.0%/0.0% |
| 其他金融机构债 |
11.7/14.7/22.7/77.7 |
1.1%/21.2%/10.0%/0.3% |
