20151119-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_O_il___Gas_11页_786kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary
Core Content
This document provides an overview of the oil and gas market in Asia and other regions, along with key news headlines and analyst reports. It highlights price movements, production changes, and valuation data for various companies.
Key Market Movements
- Brent Crude Oil: Rose by 1.3% to USD44.14/bbl.
- WTI Crude Oil: Increased by 0.2% to USD40.75/bbl.
- Oil Prices: Near two-month lows due to increased U.S. crude supplies.
- U.S. Crude Stockpiles: Reached 487.3 million barrels, the highest for this time of year since 1930.
- Global Inventories: Expanded to nearly 3 billion barrels due to OPEC and other producers' increased output.
- Crude Drop: Prices have fallen by almost half in the past year due to oversupply and rising Russian production.
News Headlines
Oil Trades Near Two-Month Low
- U.S. crude supplies increased, leading to a record high in global inventories.
- Oil prices fell below USD40 per barrel, the lowest since August.
- Iran is working to regain lost oil sales due to sanctions.
China Sharply Cuts Gas Price for Non-Residential Users
- China's NDRC announced a 25% price cut for non-residential gas users.
- Prices are set to drop by 700 yuan per thousand cubic meters.
- The move aims to promote open and transparent trading.
Suncor Cuts 2016 Oil Sands Production
- Suncor will reduce 2016 production due to major maintenance.
- Capital spending will increase by 15%.
- The CEO cited significant planned maintenance activities as the cause.
China's 2015 Gas Demand Seen at 190 Bcm
- 2015 natural gas demand is expected at 190 billion cubic meters.
- Demand is projected to grow to 298.4 bcm by 2020 and 454.4 bcm by 2030.
- LNG demand is expected to grow by an average of 8.1% from 2015 to 2020.
Analyst Reports
Yinson Holdings
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: MYR4.35
- Highlights: Growth stock with short and long-term catalysts, potential for special dividend and FPSO job wins.
Malaysia Oil & Gas
- Rating: NEUTRAL
- Highlights: Lower dividends expected in 2016, cautious outlook, no headcount cuts.
- Selective BUYs on Bumi Armada, Dialog, Yinson, and KNM.
PTT Global Chemical
- Rating: HOLD
- Highlights: Weak 3Q15 results due to stock losses, lower aromatics profit, and FX loss.
- Earnings cut by 15% for FY15, target price at 62/share.
Bumi Armada
- Rating: BUY
- Highlights: Unconfirmed reports of MISC injecting offshore assets into BArmada.
- Positive implications for strategic partnership.
Valuation Data (Asia)
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (USD) | Target Price (USD) | Market Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE % | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 5.41 | 4.80 | 251.6 | 81.0 | 25.7 | 44.7 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Buy | 4.95 | 6.00 | 98.5 | 68.4 | 12.9 | 14.1 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 0.9 | 3.8 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 8.13 | 11.34 | 49.5 | 92.8 | 16.0 | 19.2 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 4.6 |
| New Ocean Energy | 342 HK | Buy | 3.24 | 7.70 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 19.0 | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 230.7 | NR | 30.6 | 16.8 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 1.1 | 4.2 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 912.0 | NR | 45.1 | 49.6 | 12.4 | 11.3 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 11.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Hold | 134.7 | 198.00 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 8.0 | 11.7 | 2.0 | 11.7 | 0.4 | 6.6 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 884.0 | NR | 9.6 | 20.6 | 20.2 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 7.2 | 15.2 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 767.0 | NR | 3.8 | 20.9 | 18.8 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 7.80 | 11.25 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 18.5 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Phoenix Petro | PNX PM | Buy | 3.70 | 4.75 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 0.7 | 2.8 |
| S-Oil | 010950 KS | NR | 69,700 | NR | 6.5 | 18.6 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 15.2 | 1.4 | 2.8 |
| SK Innovation | 096770 KS | NR | 121,000 | NR | 9.3 | 36.3 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 0.7 | 2.4 |
| GS Holdings | 078930 KS | NR | 49,400 | NR | 4.1 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 0.7 | 2.5 |
| Formosa Petrochemical | 6505 TT | NR | 76.30 | NR | 8.8 | 16.5 | 14.7 | 18.2 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 1.6 | 3.9 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | Buy | 1.04 | 1.20 | 1.5 | 4.3 | 32.4 | 29.1 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Dialog | DLG MK | Buy | 1.63 | 1.90 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 28.6 | 30.7 | 27.3 | 29.0 | 15.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 |
| KNM | KNMG MK | Buy | 0.51 | 1.00 | 0.2 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 55.8 | 87.00 | 6.9 | 18.9 | 9.3 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 11.3 | 1.0 | 4.8 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | Buy | 263.0 | 395.00 | 22.1 | 62.1 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 9.1 | 1.1 | 3.7 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 61.8 | 65.00 | 3.1 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 13.7 | 1.2 | 4.6 |
| Asian Refiners average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 13.2 | 12.6 | -18.3 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 1.7 | 3.3 |
Analyst Contact Information
- HK/CHINA: Howard Wong, (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- INDIA: Jigar Shah, (91) 2266232632, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- INDONESIA: Pandu Anugrah, (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- MALAYSIA: Liaw Thong Jung, (603) 22978688, tliaw@maybank-ib.com
- PHILIPPINES: Michael Bengson, (63) 28498840, micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com
- SINGAPORE: Yeah Chee Keong, (65) 6231 5842, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- THAILAND: Sutthichai Kumworachai, (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- VIETNAM: Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen, (84) 844555888×8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Truong Quang Binh, (84) 444555888 x 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Notes
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR is based on ICAP's JKL 1-month forward price.
- Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE
- Forward-looking estimates and multiples for companies not under Maybank Kim Eng's coverage are from Bloomberg consensus.
- Average multiples and yields are weighted by market capitalization.
- URL: www.baogaoba.xyz
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