20260728-招银国际-Capital_Goods_Machinery_2Q26_earnings_preview_2页_629kb

Capital Goods Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an earnings preview and analysis for key players in the capital goods sector, focusing on SANY Heavy, Zoomlion, and SANY International (SANYI) for the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26). It also outlines the broader outlook for the China capital goods sector and includes relevant disclosures and ratings from CMB International Global Markets Limited (CMBIGM).

Key Companies and Earnings Forecasts

SANY Heavy (6031 HK / 600031 CH)

• Rating: BUY
• Total Revenue Forecast: ~20% YoY growth in 2Q26
• Net Profit Forecast (excluding FX change): ~40% YoY growth to RMB3.8bn
• Reason for Growth: Strong sales across all major segments

Zoomlion (1157 HK / 000157 CH)

• Rating: BUY
• Total Revenue Forecast: ~10% YoY growth (overseas: +15% YoY; China: <10% YoY)
• Net Profit Forecast (excluding FX change): ~30% YoY growth to RMB1.8bn
• Note on FX Impact: FX loss is expected due to RMB appreciation, but net profit could remain stable when FX is included

SANY International (631 HK)

• Rating: BUY
• Net Profit Forecast (excluding FX change): ~10% YoY decline to RMB600mn (compared to -20% YoY in 1Q26)
• Reason for Decline: High base effect
• Positive Outlook: Mining truck sales are expected to offset some of the decline
• Solar Power Segment: Continues to face pressure with a segment loss of RMB100-200mn (mainly due to non-cash depreciation)
• Earnings Revision: Trimmed 2026E/27E/28E forecasts by 12%/9%/7%
• Target Price (TP): Revised down to HK$17.1 (from HK$18.9), based on 20x 2026E P/E ratio

Sector Outlook

• The China Capital Goods Sector is expected to show strong growth in machinery sales, particularly in earth-moving equipment and cranes.
• There are early signs of recovery for AWPs (Autonomous Wheel Loaders) and continued momentum in earth-moving machinery sales.
• SANYI is noted for its structural penetration of large mining trucks overseas, which is seen as a positive factor despite the current earnings challenges.

CMBIGM Ratings

• BUY: Potential return of over 15% over next 12 months
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months

Disclosures and Legal Information

• The report is not individually tailored and is intended for general informational purposes only.
• Investment Risks: There are risks involved in transacting in any securities, and actual events may differ materially from the report's projections.
• Liability Disclaimer: CMBIGM and its affiliates are not liable for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on the information in this report.
• Reproduction Restrictions: The report may not be reproduced, reprinted, sold, redistributed, or published in whole or in part without prior written consent from CMBIGM.

Legal Restrictions by Region

• United Kingdom: The report is provided only to persons falling within Article 19(5) or Article 49(2) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005.
• United States: The report is intended for distribution solely to "major US institutional investors" and must not be shared with others.
• Singapore: The report is distributed by CMBISG, an Exempt Financial Adviser, and may be provided to non-accredited investors only to the extent required by law.

Analyst Information

• Analyst: Wayne FUNG, CFA
• Contact: (852) 3900 0826 | waynefung@cmbi.com.hk
• Analyst Certification: The analyst certifies that all views in the report reflect personal opinions and that no compensation is directly or indirectly linked to the views expressed.