2025-06-02-IEA-2025年5月度石油和天然气数据审查（英）_20页_1mb

报告摘要

Monthly Oil & Gas Data Review Summary - May 2025

Core Content Overview

This summary presents the latest updates from the JODI (Joint Oil Data Initiative) oil and gas databases as of March 2025, highlighting key trends in demand, production, and inventory levels for both oil and natural gas.

Oil Highlights

Month-on-Month (m/m) Changes

Oil Demand: Increased by 793 kb/d compared to February 2025.
Refinery Intake: Rose by 313 kb/d m/m.
Crude Production: Grew by 288 kb/d m/m.
NGL Production: Increased by 217 kb/d m/m.
Crude Inventories: Rose by 29.2 mb m/m.
Product Inventories: Declined by 21.1 mb m/m.

Year-on-Year (y/y) Changes

Oil Demand: Increased by 1.8 mb/d compared to March 2024.
Crude Production: Grew by 325 kb/d y/y.
NGL Production: Increased by 412 kb/d y/y.
Crude Inventories: Settled at 162 mb below the 5-year average.
Product Inventories: Settled at 34.2 mb below the 5-year average.

Key Drivers

m/m growth: Led by the US (+1.1 mb/d), Italy (+395 kb/d), and Saudi Arabia (+223 kb/d).
y/y growth: Driven by US (+1.5 mb/d), Italy (+371 kb/d), Nigeria (+219 kb/d), and Saudi Arabia (+107 kb/d).
Fuel-specific demand:
- Gasoline demand increased by 703 kb/d m/m.
- Diesel demand decreased by 558 kb/d m/m.
- LPG demand fell by 596 kb/d m/m.
- Naphtha demand dropped by 29 kb/d m/m.

Gas Highlights

Month-on-Month (m/m) Changes

Gas Demand: Declined by 10.3 bcm m/m compared to March 2024, and by 35.5 bcm m/m compared to February 2025.
Gas Production: Increased by 14.3 bcm m/m compared to February 2025, but decreased by 10.4 bcm m/m compared to March 2024.
Gas Inventories: Fell by 4.4 bcm m/m and by 31.9 bcm y/y compared to the 5-year average.

Year-on-Year (y/y) Changes

Gas Production: Declined by 10.4 bcm y/y compared to March 2024.
Gas Demand: Decreased by 10.4 bcm y/y compared to March 2024.
Gas Inventories: Settled at 31.9 bcm below the 5-year average.

Key Drivers

m/m growth in production: Led by Russia (+7.1 bcm), Qatar (+2.1 bcm), Australia (+1.6 bcm), Nigeria (+1 bcm), and Norway (+0.6 bcm).
m/m decline in demand: Driven by US (-20 bcm), Canada (-4 bcm), Germany (-2.9 bcm), Turkey (-2.3 bcm), South Korea (-1.4 bcm), Japan (-1.2 bcm), Italy (-1 bcm), and France (-0.7 bcm).
EU+UK demand: Declined by 8.1 bcm m/m, settling at 37.7 bcm.
EU+UK inventories: Fell by 4.5 bcm m/m, reaching 12.6 bcm below the 5-year average.

Country-Specific Insights

Saudi Arabia

Crude Production: Increased by 10 kb/d in March.
Crude Exports: Declined by 793 kb/d in March.

Japan

Total Product Demand: Decreased by 232 kb/d in March.
Crude Imports: Increased by 176 kb/d m/m.

Summary of Key Trends

Category	Month-on-Month (m/m)	Year-on-Year (y/y)	Notes
Oil Demand	+793 kb/d	+1.8 mb/d	US, Italy, Saudi Arabia led the increase
Crude Production	+288 kb/d	+325 kb/d	US was the main driver
NGL Production	+217 kb/d	+412 kb/d	US and other countries saw growth
Crude Inventories	+29.2 mb	-162 mb	Below 5-year average
Product Inventories	-21.1 mb	-34.2 mb	Below 5-year average
Gas Production	+14.3 bcm	-10.4 bcm	Russia, Qatar, Australia, Nigeria, Norway drove m/m growth
Gas Demand	-10.3 bcm	-10.4 bcm	US, Canada, Germany, Turkey, South Korea, Japan, Italy, France saw declines
Gas Inventories	-4.4 bcm	-31.9 bcm	Below 5-year average
EU+UK Gas Demand	-8.1 bcm	- (not specified)	Significant decline
EU+UK Gas Inventories	-4.5 bcm	- (not specified)	Below 5-year average

Conclusion

The JODI data for March 2025 indicates a mixed trend in global oil and gas markets. Oil demand and production showed growth, driven primarily by the US, Italy, and Saudi Arabia. However, product inventories declined, and crude inventories remained below the 5-year average. In contrast, natural gas production increased month-on-month but fell year-on-year, with the US and Canada as key contributors to the decline. Gas demand and inventories dropped significantly, particularly in the EU+UK region, signaling a potential shift in consumption patterns.

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