2009年-世界发展银行全球_Mexico_-_Country_Note_on_Climate_Change_Aspects_in_Agriculture_16页_3mb

Summary of Mexico's Climate Change and Agriculture Context

Core Content

Mexico is a developing country that has demonstrated a strong commitment to addressing climate change through its participation in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The country has submitted three National Communications, highlighting its proactive approach to climate policy. Agriculture plays a vital role in the economy but contributes relatively little to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with the sector accounting for 7% of total emissions and land use change and forestry for 14%, totaling 21% of emissions.

The country is highly vulnerable to climate change, particularly in the agricultural sector. Weather extremes, such as droughts and tropical storms, have had significant economic and social impacts, with agricultural losses accounting for over 80% of total economic losses from weather-related disasters in the past two decades. These events threaten food security and livelihoods, especially in rural areas.

Main Points

1. Climate Context

• Agricultural Land Use: Around 55% of Mexico's land is used for agriculture (42% for pasture, 13% for cultivation), and 33% is used for forestry.
• Climate Projections:
  • Temperature increases are expected, with a projected rise of 2 to 4°C by 2050, especially in Central and Northern regions.
  • Precipitation is expected to decrease by up to 15% in the Central region and less than 5% in the Gulf of Mexico area.
  • Increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including tropical storms and droughts, are anticipated.
• Climate Vulnerability:
  • Mexico ranks 26th in the Global Climate Risk Index for the period 1997–2006.
  • The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable, especially in the Northern and Southern regions.

2. Policy Context

• National Communications:
  • Mexico has submitted three National Communications to the UNFCCC, showcasing its policy commitment.
  • The Third National Communication included vulnerability assessments and regional studies.
• National Climate Change Strategy (ENACC):
  • Launched in 2007, the ENACC outlines voluntary emission reduction targets and adaptation measures.
  • It emphasizes the need for institutional capacity building and public consultations.
• Special Program on Climate Change (PECC):
  • Designed to operationalize the ENACC, PECC includes priority actions and funding sources.
  • It has not yet been fully implemented, though it is under discussion.

Key Institutions

3.1. Inter-Sectoral Coordination

• The Inter-Ministerial Commission on Climate Change (CICC) is the designated national authority for climate change and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).
• It coordinates national climate strategies and involves seven ministries, including the Ministry of Agriculture.
• The Consultative Council on Climate Change (C4) provides scientific and civil society input to the CICC.

3.2. Agricultural Sector Institutions

• The Ministry of the Environment (SEMARNAT) oversees climate change initiatives in agriculture, forestry, and water sectors.
• CONAFOR manages forestry programs, including community-managed forests and reforestation.
• CONAGUA is responsible for water sector adaptation and management.
• SMN provides weather information and services.
• IMTA focuses on water technology and management.
• SAGARPA leads agricultural climate change initiatives, including the National Network of Agroclimatic State Stations and Climate Prediction Forums.

3.3. Capacity Building

• Emissions Inventories: Mexico has updated its National GHG Inventory three times (1990–2002) and provides a user-friendly, searchable database.
• Climate Modeling and Impact Assessment: Institutions like Centro Mario Molina, INE, and UNAM are involved in climate scenario modeling and impact assessments.
• Research and Innovation: Institutions such as INIFAP, Colegio de Postgraduados, and Universidad Autónoma de Chapingo are engaged in research and innovation to enhance climate resilience.

Mitigation Measures

4.1. Action Frameworks

• Land Use and Forestry:
  • Key mitigation measures include reforestation, soil restoration, and commercial plantations.
  • The PROARBOL program supports sustainable forestry in the 101 least privileged municipalities.
• Agriculture:
  • Mitigation efforts focus on reducing methane emissions and promoting sustainable agricultural practices.
  • Renewable energy and energy efficiency are highlighted as potential tools for emission reduction.

4.2. Carbon Trading and Agriculture

• Mexico is exploring carbon trading opportunities, particularly in the agricultural sector.
• The Trust Fund for Shared Risk (FIRCO) supports energy efficiency and renewable energy in agribusiness.
• Biodigestors are proposed to convert animal excreta into biogas, reducing GHG emissions.

Adaptation Measures

5.1. Action Frameworks

• Land Management:
  • Strategies include sustainable land use planning and combating desertification.
• Water Use:
  • Efficient water use and integrated water management are emphasized to reduce the risk of droughts and floods.

5.2. Social Aspects and Interventions

• Social vulnerability assessments are being conducted to identify at-risk communities and develop targeted interventions.
• The AIACC has completed a study on climate change impacts and vulnerability in the agricultural sector.

5.3. Insurance Instruments

• Insurance mechanisms are being developed to protect farmers from climate-related risks.
• These include crop insurance and other financial instruments to support adaptation and resilience.

Key Information

• Economic Contribution of Agriculture: Agriculture is a significant part of the economy, with 55% of the land used for agricultural purposes.
• GHG Emissions: Agriculture contributes 7% of total GHG emissions, while land use change and forestry contribute 14%, totaling 21%.
• Climate Change Impact on Crops: Corn is the most important crop, but its cultivation is becoming less viable due to climate change, potentially leading to a shift towards more drought-resistant crops.
• Vulnerability Indicators: Mexico has high vulnerability due to factors such as employment in agriculture, rainfed cropland, water usage, and soil degradation.
• International Recognition: Mexico ranks 4th in the Climate Change Performance Index (2008), reflecting its strong policy commitment to climate change issues.