2025年全球养老金资产研究报告（英文版）_43页_5mb

Executive Summary

The Thinking Ahead Institute's 2025 Global Pension Assets Study provides a comprehensive analysis of pension markets in the P22 countries. Total estimated assets reached USD 58,511 billion, representing a 5% increase from 2023. The US dominates with 64.9% of assets, followed by Japan and Canada. Growth was uneven, with markets like the US and China showing strong performance. Asset allocation leans toward equities (45%) and bonds (33%) in P7 markets, with increasing diversification into alternatives. DB plans remain predominant, but DC assets are growing at a faster pace. Political and macroeconomic factors, climate risks, and regulatory shifts influence strategies, with a focus on organizational alpha and sustainability.

Asset Size and Composition

• Total P22 assets projected to USD 58,511 billion (2024 estimate), ranking highest in the US, Japan, Canada, UK, and Australia.
• US leads with a 64.9% share, while seven key markets (P7) account for 81.5% of assets.
• Growth rates varied: US at 7.2%, China at 14.4% in USD terms; currency impacts reduced GDP rankings in some markets.
• Asset concentration remains high, with a Gini coefficient of 79.1%, indicating uneven distribution across few nations.

Asset Allocation

• P7 markets show a shift from heavier equity exposure (57% in 2004) to a more balanced mix, with equities at 45% and bonds up to 33% in 2024.
• Home bias in equities decreased, favoring global diversification, though domestic bonds remain significant.
• Alternative assets are expanding, offering diversification and sustainability benefits.

Defined Benefit vs. Defined Contribution Split

• DB assets dominate (59% in US P7), yet DC assets grow faster (6.7% annualized over 10 years).
• Variations exist: Netherlands has a high DB allocation (92.8%), while Australia is mostly DC (89.2%).
• Historically, DC growth accelerated, but data reliability varies by country.

Key Trends and Challenges

• Exogenous factors like geopolitics, climate change, and policy shifts drive strategic changes.
• Rise of alternative investments to mitigate risks and align with net-zero goals.
• Emphasis on "organizational alpha" highlights the role of operational excellence in achieving long-term value.

Methodology and Limitations

• Study uses a blend of hard data and estimates, including contributions from WTW Montevideo Research Services.
• Challenges: Currency fluctuations affect growth calculations, data availability limits inclusion (e.g., China's Pillar I is excluded), and methodological changes impact comparability.

This summary highlights the evolving landscape of global pensions, emphasizing concentration, growth dynamics, and the need for adaptive strategies amid increasing systemic risks.